Tron Price Forecast: TRX steadies as on-chain metrics signal recovery potential

Tron (TRX) price trades in the green by nearly 1% at the time of writing on Thursday, extending the 0.76% gains from the previous day, while the broader cryptocurrency market remains volatile. Both on-chain and derivatives data suggest further recovery for Tron as network activity holds steady and retail interest returns.

Tron’s steady network growth 

Tron blockchain has experienced a steady rise in network activity over the last 30 days, as indicated by the increase in active accounts and network revenue numbers. According to TronScan data, the number of active accounts averages around 3 million over the last 30 days. 

Tron Active Accounts. Source: TronScan

On the other hand, the total revenue on Wednesday stood at $8.58 million, a 2.35% rise from the previous day, driving the total for the last 30 days to $234.55 million.  

Overall, a steady flow of network revenue and active accounts leads to network growth, which could drive its native token price, TRX.  

Tron Daily Revenue. Source: TronScan

Meanwhile, the availability of Tron’s native token is declining as the burning process outpaces the TRX generation. The deflationary pressure is gradually increasing after the recent market volatility, as evidenced by the burning of 5.18 million TRX tokens compared to the steady generation of 3.91 million TRX tokens on Tuesday. A steady increase in delation could lead to a TRX price surge based on the general demand-supply logic. 

TRX generated to burn rate. Source: TronScan

Is retail interest resurfacing for Tron?

The demand for Tron continues to fluctuate, a side effect of the ongoing broader market volatility. CoinGlass data shows a consistent decline in TRX futures Open Interest (OI), standing at $340.32 million on Thursday. A declining trend in OI indicates that the market participants are spooked, resulting in either deleveraging or capital withdrawal. 

However, the short-term retail interest is resurfacing as the OI-weighted funding rate flips positive to 0.073% suggesting that traders are willing to pay the heavy premium to hold long positions. As the funding rate approaches 0.010%, a level of extreme buying pressure, the short-term interest could fuel a recovery in futures OI.

Tron derivatives data. Source: CoinGlass

Tron holds at a steady balance amid renewed recovery 

Tron holds steady above the $0.3145 support level, marked by the September 6 close, avoiding further correction after the 2% drop on Saturday. At the time of writing, TRX trades above $0.3200 on Thursday, marking its second consecutive day of recovery. 

The momentum indicators on the daily chart suggest a decline in selling pressure as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41 slopes upwards, approaching the midpoint line. If RSI resurfaces above 50, it would confirm a resurgence in buying pressure. 

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) approaches its signal line for a potential crossover, which would confirm a bullish shift in trend momentum. Furthermore, the declining trend in red histogram bars corroborates the decline in selling pressure.

Looking up, a steady recovery in TRX could face opposition from the centre Pivot Point level at $0.3287. A decisive close above this level could test the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.3338, followed by the R1 Pivot Point level at $0.3596. 

TRX/USDT daily price chart.

Still, a bearish tilt in 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $0.3338 and $0.3261, respectively, indicates a slowdown in the prevailing uptrend. If TRX slips below the $0.3145 support, the 200-day EMA at $0.3030 would be put to the test.