• TRX may retest $0.04, provided that the support at $0.03 is sustained.
  • The coin is overbought on the longer-term timeframes.

TRON (TRX), the 13th-largest digital asset with the current market capitalization of $2.34 billion, has been recovering on Tuesday. The coin has gained nearly 9% on a day-to-day basis to trade at $0.0331 by press time. TRX/USD is the best-performing cryptocurrency out of top-20 as Bitcoin, and other major altcoins are deep in the red.

TRX/USD: The technical picture

TRON's TRX moved above 23.6% Fibo retracement for the major downside move from Aril 2018 high to November 2018 low ($0.032). This development is a bullish sign in the long run; however, let's have a closer look at the TRON's technical picture to decide whether it can return to $0.044.

On the daily chart, TRX moves within an upper part of the Bollinger Bands with the local resistance at $0.038. Once it is out of the way, the upside will gain traction with the next focus on the psychological $0.04 and $0.044, which is reinforced by 38.2% Fibo retracement for the above-mentioned downside move. Apart from that, the daily RSI points upwards, and it has not reached an overbought territory yet, which is a positive signal in the short run. 

TRX/USD daily chart

Also, note how the price is moving inside the lower part of upside-looking Andrew's Pitchfork. Its lower boundary (currently at $0.031) served as a backstop for the price since the major sell-off on September 5. The price has the potential to recover to the middle line of the Pitchfork at $0.04, right above the upper line of the daily Bollinger Band. 

On the other hand, a move outside the Pitchfork will negate the bullish scenario and bring more bears to the market. In this case, the sell-off may start snowballing with the next focus on $0.028 (the middle line of the BB) and $0.024 (the daily SMA50).

On the weekly chart, TRX/USD moved outside the Bollinger Band, which is a warning signal for the bulls. It means that the growth is overstretched, and the downside correction towards the upper boundary at $0.03 is imminent. The next long-term support comes at $0.02 (weekly SMA100). The RSI on the weekly chart still points upwards, though it also confirms its overbought state. 

TRX/USD weekly chart

To conclude: TRX/USD is well-positioned for further growth with the initial aim at $0.04 and $0.044. However, considering an overbought state on the long-term charts, the price may be vulnerable to the downside correction. A move below $0.031-$0.03 area will cancel the bullish scenario.

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