- BTC/USD anchors its crypto partners.
- ETH/USD must lead the bullish movement for it to be valid.
- XRP/USD is not at its best, better to wait in the rear.
Pessimism is a state of mind in which even though the evidence tells us that things are going to go well, our brain tells us that something terrible is going to happen.
That's what's happening right now in the cryptocurrencies market. The mental framework of the average trader is anchored to the bearish market that, in my opinion, ended last December.
After the lows, Ethereum took the initiative and led the market to the rise, an essential condition that has occurred in all the upward stretches that have been seen in this young market. The first bullish segment ended in the early days of January and consolidated the new price ranges until the first week of February. From that moment on, it went up again for two weeks, and in the last week of February, it went back into consolidation mode until today.
ETH/BTC Daily Chart
Technical analyses are valuable when they provide relevant and actionable information. The analyst must put his study into play without fear that it is wrong, as the trader has the tools to limit the risk.
My analysis on the ETH/BTC pair shows a very high probability that a new bullish tranche will start in the next few hours. The resistance level to overcome is at the price level of 0.0355 ETH/BTC. Above that price level, the bullish turn would begin to consolidate, being confirmed with a close above the 0.0382 price level.
BTC/USD 240 Minute Chart
The BTC/USD pair is currently trading at the $3,857 price level, now above all significant moving averages. Bitcoin moves in a zone full of obstacles, both up and down.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $3,900 (price congestion resistance), then the second resistance level is at $4,050 (price congestion resistance) and the third resistance level is $4,190 (price congestion resistance and relative maximum).
Below the current price, the first support level is in the $3,800 zone, formed by the confluence of the EMA50, the SMA100, and a price congestion support. If the BTC/USD pair pierces this support down, there is reinforcement support at $3,750 (SMA200). Below this second support level, the scenario would change to bearish/sideways. The third support level is at $3,695 (price congestion support).
The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows a bullish cross profile, being just above the line indicating the 0, or neutral, level of the indicator. It is a statistically bullish setup.
The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows bulls reacting bullishly, although they have not yet managed to break above the ADX level, a figure that would confirm the market's mood shift in the short term.
ETH/USD 240 Minute Chart
The ETH/USD pair is currently trading at the $134.6 price level as it attempts to escape the tangle of moving averages that surrounds it.
Above the current price, the first resistance level extends to the price level of $136.9 (SMA200) from the price level of $135.6 (EMA50). Overcoming this first obstacle zone is vital, as freeing oneself from the weight of moving averages would allow the Ethereum to advance vigorously against the US Dollar. The second resistance level is at the price level of $142 (price congestion resistance) and then the third resistance level at $150 (price congestion resistance).
Below the current price, the first support level for the ETH/USD pair is at the price level of $133 (SMA200), a support level reinforced by the presence of price congestion support at the price level of $131. This price level is significant for the ETH/USD pair because of the strength of the support and because below, the second support is already at the distant price level of $120 (price congestion support). The third support level is at $115 (price congestion support), a level it should never visit.
The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows a bullish cross profile, although in the case of Ethereum, below the 0 levels of the indicator. This setup is less bullish than the one seen in Bitcoin, but it still has an active component on the upside.
The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows a very aggressive rise by the bulls, who in a few hours managed to overcome the ADX line and are now battling to take advantage against the bears. The setup is potentially very bullish.
XRP/USD 240 Minute Chart
The XRP/USD pair is currently trading at the $0.3118 price level, which is below the three moving averages. These moving averages are compressed between the SMA100 at $0.315 and the SMA200 at $0.313, leaving the EMA50 in the middle at $0.3139.
This confluence is completed with the price congestion resistance of $0.317 which forms the first resistance level for XRP/USD. The second resistance level is $0.328 (price congestion resistance), then the third resistance level is at $0.335 (price congestion resistance).
Below the current price, the first support level for XRP/USD is at $0.308 (price congestion support). The second level of support for XRP/USD pair is at $0.300 (price congestion support), so the third level of support is at the price level of $0.293 (price congestion support).
The MACD on the 4-hour chart shows a bullish cross profile, albeit with little inclination that may favor bearish rejections to the bullish cut.
The DMI on the 4-hour chart shows a reasonably neutral profile. The ADX on XRP/USD is at its lowest level, making clear the indecision on the XRP. It doesn't look like XRP/USD is going to be the protagonist of any movement now.
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