- XRP has come out severely damaged from the shakeout and threatened by imminent risk.
- ETH has good reasons to take the lead from Bitcoin.
- A market of strong emotions is driving out the weakest.
After a day off, I return to the office facing the daily analysis after substantial falls in the past 36 hours.
At first glance, the falls do not represent any change in the strongly bullish scenario in the cryptocurrencies segment.
The digital coin most affected by the falls is – as it could not be otherwise – XRP. The drag and delay it had suffered in comparison to Bitcoin and Ethereum have penalized it. Ripple Ltd.’s cryptocurrency has fallen below the main moving averages – something that has not happened to its two podium companions.
The daily charts show that the existing upward trend has not suffered critical damage. It seems more like a cleansing process in which the tokens have changed hands between those who were satisfied with making gains around $13K and those who wanted to get on a train – that had not stopped at the station for about two weeks.
The critical information currently comes from the Altcoin segment. The delay concerning Bitcoin’s performance is significant in almost all Alts – and that must be normalized – so many people may be moving towards the main Alts.
At the first hour of the European session, that is the dominant tone.
ETH/BTC Daily Chart
The ETH/BTC pair is forming a floor in the 0.0262, and in the 4-hour range, the indicators have crossed upwards. The daily chart still shows room for some movement towards 0.0248, which should be accompanied by a significant increase in volatility.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at 0.0269 (price congestion resistance), then the second one is at 0.0275 (price congestion resistance) and the third one awaits at 0.0291 (price congestion resistance).
Beyond this third resistance level, ETH/BTC will face the three main moving averages, and if it exceeds them, we could see a much stronger bullish development than we have seen in BTC/USD.
Below the current price, the first level of support is at 0.0261 (price congestion support), then the second at 0.0248 (price congestion support) and the third one at 0.0229 (price congestion support).
The MACD on the daily chart shows a fully bearish profile, perhaps so bright that it considerably increases the chances of a bullish reaction.
The DMI on the daily chart shows bears falling from the highs but with enough advantage so that this does not jeopardize their dominance. The bulls, on the other hand, are going to a level unseen since the first week of December when Ethereum surpassed Bitcoin by more than 15% in relative terms.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
BTC/USD is currently trading at $11,341 and is at the lower end of the range that took the price to almost $14,000. In its worst moments, it lost two support zones but has regained them – and now the technical damage is minimal. In the next few days it's likely to see some more falls, but with few consequences.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $14,000 (price congestion resistance and relative maximum), then the second at $17,050 (price congestion resistance) and the third one at $19,890 (price congestion resistance and historical maximum).
Below the current price, the first level of support is at $11,280 (price congestion support), then the second at $9,690 (price congestion support) and the third one at $9,171 (price congestion support).
The MACD on the daily chart shows a loss of bullish slope but retains a proper line spacing. This setup leaves room for bullish continuity, but possibly in a more volatile environment.
The DMI on the daily chart shows bulls losing the support of the ADX line, which triggers a bearish or lateral bearish pattern. The bears confirm this as they react to the upside and are ready to dispute the leadership next week.
ETH/USD Daily Chart
The ETH/USD pair is currently trading at the $297 price level controlling the damage above the critical support zone starting at $290.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $306 (price congestion resistance), then the second at $316 (price congestion resistance) and the third one at $331 (price congestion resistance).
The first level of support is at $290 (price congestion support), then the second at $260 (price congestion support and EMA50) and the third at $250 (price congestion support).
The MACD on the daily chart shows a more radical profile than the Bitcoin. It had not risen as much as the King, and yesterday's falls have brought it close to a possible bearish cross or a bullish rebound. The uncertainty of the cross and that possible rebound fits the scenario described in the ETH/BTC pair.
The DMI on the daily chart shows how bulls stay above the ADX with solvency, while bears approach the same line on the lower side and could have a battle with buyers – implying a possible increase in volatility.
XRP/USD Daily Chart
XRP starts to be worrying.
Above the current price, the first resistance level is at $0.413 (price congestion resistance and EMA50), then the second at $0.428 (price congestion resistance) and the third one at $0.44 (double price congestion resistance).
Below the current price, the first level of support is at $0.391 (price congestion support), then the second at $0.367 (price congestion support and SMA100) and the third one at $0.034 (price congestion support and SMA200).
The MACD on the daily chart clearly shows a bearish cross after leaving a divergence in the relative highs. It is a dangerous structure and has a high probability of triggering additional downfalls.
The DMI on the daily chart shows bears leading by very little in the XRP/USD pair. Both sides of the market are below the ADX line – which may limit the damage a bit – but the situation is not conducive to optimism.
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