The price of Ether (ETH) is hovering near its all-time high once again, while Bitcoin (BTC) is still far from surpassing its record high at $60,805.

But despite ETH demonstrating strong technical momentum and entering price discovery, on-chain analysis finds that its support is "narrower" than Bitcoin.

Simply put, ETH faces a bigger risk of seeing a deeper pullback than Bitcoin in the foreseeable future, if the market turns around.

Chart

USD cost of Ethereum held since November 2020. Source: Chainalysis, Phillip Gradwell

Why does Ethereum have a weaker support area than Bitcoin

Phillip Gradwell, the chief economist at Chainalysis, said that ETH price has narrower support near its record high compared to Bitcoin.

If the market corrects, the next major ETH support level is around $1,800, Gradwell noted.

Based on the accumulation trend of ETH, Gradwell explained that the strongest level of demand is at $1,800. He said:

"The Ethereum price reached a new all-time high this week but cost curve analysis suggests the peak Ethereum price has a narrower base of support than the peak bitcoin price, with the next strongest level of observed demand for Ethereum at $1,800.”

Gradwell used a data point called "the USD cost of Ethereum held" — which is similar to whale clusters for Bitcoin — to estimate at which price level investors accumulated ETH.

If the $1,800 support level gets broken and the market sees a sizable correction, the economist said that $1,500 is a "particularly strong" next level of support for ETH.

A drop to $1,500 would mean ETH would see a 30% drop from the current price of around $2,100. 

Historically, 30% pullbacks occurred frequently during bull cycles, but in the recent cryptocurrency market uptrend, there has not been many 20% to 30% pullbacks compared to the run-up in 2017.

Nonetheless, Gradwell emphasized that $1,500 is the macro support level for ETH in the short to medium term. He added:

"The ETH market has changed radically in recent months, with a significant increase in the cost of acquisition for over 50 million ETH, out of a total supply of 115M. Support at $1,500 is particularly strong, with 33.3M ETH acquired above this level at a total cost of $58 billion."

One key reason ETH might have a narrower support base than Bitcoin could be the small number of long-time HODLers.

After the peak in 2017, Gradwell found that a small cohort of investors held ETH despite seeing major losses. 

The economist said that such a trend supports the concern that ETH has a weaker support base, at least relative to Bitcoin.

Traders expect ETH to continue rallying above ATH

In the short term, traders still expect ETH to see a broader uptrend despite the concerns for a narrow support base.

A pseudonymous trader known as "Blunts" said that based on the bottoming out formation on the 4-hour chart, ETH would likely see another record high before BTC.

The trader said:

"Looks like that was the $eth low. At this rate eth will be at ath before btc."

Chart

ETH/USD 4-hour price chart with key levels. Source: TradingView.com, Blunts

Atop the favorable technical market structure, according to Glassnode, the hash rate of the Ethereum blockchain network has hit a new all-time high.

Hence, both fundamentals and price technicals suggest that the momentum of ETH price has a good chance of sustainability in the near term.

Cryptos feed

Latest Crypto News


Latest Crypto News & Analysis

Editors’ Picks

Ripple on track to hit $2 as on-chain metrics reset

XRP price shows a consolidation in play that could lead to a new yearly high. The recent recovery from the dip into the demand zone suggests the presence of strong buyers.

More Ripple News

Chainlink makes new all-time high, targeting $100

Chainlink price made another new all-time high at $52.70, while all eyes were on Ethereum crossing past $4,000. LINK has regained massive bullish momentum in the past few weeks. 

More Chainlink News

SafeMoon price may retrace 25% as bulls fail to establish dominance

SafeMoon price shows a massive rally that pushed it to the recent local top. However, the inability of the buyers to propel it past this crucial level might lead to a pullback.

More Cryptocurrencies News

Dogecoin eyes consolidation after its recent pullback

Dogecoin price is facing a stiff resistance wall that could result in a minor correction. A confluence of on-chain indicators adds credibility to this potential bearish move.

More Dogecoin News

BEST CRYPTO BROKERS/EXCHANGES




Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: Markets revert to mean, but BTC price remains indecisive

Bitcoin price shows considerable strength after springing from the recent crashes. Still, it is uncertain whether the current bullish impulse will morph into a new uptrend or lead to a more profound decline.

Read the weekly forecast

BTC

ETH

XRP