Fasten your seatbelts: The lull in the crypto market is coming to an end
Bitcoin has been hanging around recently reached levels for the last week and a half, fully reflecting the final phase of the summer lull.
However, with the beginning of autumn, the end of vacations, and possibly harsh decisions by the Fed regarding its stimulus policy, we may see the most unexpected turns in price dynamics.
If the Fed starts to normalize its policy, the market as a whole will face significant stress. What happens if investors realize at one point that the era of cheap money is inevitably ending? A sell-off will begin, and in this case, cryptocurrencies act as a kind of asset that is "not of prime necessity and importance" for big capital.
Bitcoin will likely start to sell off because big investors are hardly crypto-enthusiasts. What can give Bitcoin a powerful growth momentum? The coin needs to become a mass payment tool, which is very unlikely given the complexity of the process for the average user and the extreme volatility.
On the other hand, this keeps US authorities from acting decisively and quickly to curb the development of cryptocurrencies. We all remember how quickly Facebook and Telegram coins were crushed when the prospect of launching massive and cheap substitutes for the US dollar appeared.
Thus, we are now witnessing a precise but delicate balance. Bitcoin is the equivalent of a digital casino, a direction for diversifying investments, a means of payment for geeks, a digital payment testbed for troubled and weak economies, and a kind of offshore for governments that cannot officially interact with each other. And it all works thanks to relatively low volumes relative to the traditional market.
Autumn and winter are traditionally the "hottest" seasons for the global market. With pandemics and lockdowns, many investors have had the opportunity to go on vacation for the first time. This may explain the relative lull in the crypto market.
The effects of the coronavirus are just beginning to hit the global economy, and without a steady supply of liquidity, the bubbles inflated by cheap money could start to burst. From now on, you better fasten your seat belts and be ready for the turbulence that will affect all assets without exception.
Author
Alexander Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro, has been with the company since its foundation. From time to time, he gives commentaries on radio and television. He publishes in major economic and socio-political media.
