Ethereum stares into the abyss

Market overview

The crypto market cap fell by 1.7% to $2.35T, returning to the lower end of the range of the last three days. Cryptocurrencies remain under pressure with local resistance just above $2.40T, contrasting with the upward movement of stock indices. This divergence can be easily explained by the shift in leadership to the classic broad market economy instead of tech stocks, with which cryptocurrencies have a high correlation. 

Bitcoin is losing over 2.2%, trading just below $69K. Intraday dynamics indicate a loss of recovery momentum. A possible failure below $68K will signal the end of consolidation after the rebound. Technically, this will open the way to local lows of $60-63K. At the same time, we still assume that the main scenario will be a prolonged consolidation in the $55-65K range, as this is an area of multiple extremes.

Ethereum is performing slightly worse than the market, losing about 3% and trying to hold on to levels above $2000. Over the past three weeks, the price has fallen below the 50- and 200-week moving averages, indicating a serious bearish sentiment. Last week, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalisation touched the long-term support line of the last four years. A break below this line near $1,600 could trigger a dramatic capitulation of long-term buyers.

News background

According to Google Trends, global user interest in cryptocurrencies has fallen to annual lows. Santiment describes the crowd sentiment as “fiercely bearish.”

The Sharpe ratio for Bitcoin fell to minus 10, to its lowest since March 2023, indicating the final stage of a bear market, according to CryptoQuant. Similar values were recorded at the bottom of the cycles at the end of 2018 and 2022. However, the final phase could last for several months.

Bitwise calls the recent drop in Bitcoin a chance for new investors to buy more coins.

The current drawdown is the weakest in the history of the bear market and reflects only a crisis of confidence among market participants, rather than fundamental problems with the asset, Bernstein notes. Analysts have confirmed their long-term forecast for Bitcoin, with a target price of $150K by the end of 2026.

According to Jefferies, Tether's gold reserves reached 148 tons, with an estimated value of $23 billion. The issuer of the USDT stablecoin entered the top 30 largest gold owners in the world, purchasing 26 tons of the precious metal in the fourth quarter and adding another 6 tons in January.