Ethereum Price Forecast: Surge in validator exits and strong PPI inflation reading sparks correction

Ethereum (ETH) dropped by 5% on Thursday following an increase in the amount of coins exiting validator duties and a hot July Producer Price Index (PPI) reading in the US.

Validator queue exits and hot PPI print triggers decline

Ethereum validator exit queue spiked to over 727,000 ETH worth over $3.2 billion on Thursday with a waiting time of about twelve days, less than 24 hours after the top altcoin approached its all-time high, according to data from Beaconcha.in.

Validator exit queue represents the total amount of coins waiting to leave transaction validating responsibilities. Such coins could be sold to book profits, redeployed to other DeFi protocols with higher yields, or just held in wallets.

Exits far outpace the 277,000 ETH ($1.2 billion) waiting to participate in staking — or validator entry.

Some crypto community members have flagged the large exit size as potential profit-taking or deleveraging of looped staked coins due to ETH's strong bullish run since July. Notably, ETH investors have maintained a profit realization rate between $500 million and $1 billion over the past three days, per Santiment data.

A higher-than-expected US PPI print for July also sparked a wave of selling activity across the entire crypto market, with ETH seeing a decline of nearly 5% on the day — its highest since August 1.

The index surged 0.9% on a monthly basis, above estimates of 0.2% and its steady rate in June. This marks its largest monthly gain since June 2022, pushing the annual rate to 3.3% — exceeding forecasts of 2.5%.

"The sharp reversal is a reminder that even the strongest crypto rallies remain tethered to macro forces —especially when inflation surprises force investors to rethink rate-cut timelines," Doug Colkitt, Initial Fogo Contributor, told FXStreet.

However, strong inflows from ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and treasury companies could help the top altcoin maintain its bullish run.

ETH ETFs recorded their second-highest daily net inflows on Wednesday, attracting $729 million, according to data from SoSoValue. The products have seen cumulative net Inflows of over $3 billion in the past seven trading days. Treasury companies, on the other hand, have accumulated 2.5 million ETH since early June, per the Strategic ETH Reserve website, and have outlined plans to expand their holdings by billions of dollars.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH has to hold the $4,500 support to retest its all-time high

Ethereum saw a rejection just above $4,700, less than a hundred dollars from its all-time high of $4,868. The move aligns with a historical supply pressure around this price level, according to Glassnode data.

As a result, the top altcoin declined nearly 5% and is looking to find support near the $4,500 level. The price drop sparked $346 million in futures liquidations over the past 24 hours, with long liquidations accounting for $276 million.

ETH/USDT daily chart

If ETH holds the $4,500 support, it could reattempt a move above its all-time high and rise toward $5,000 to complete the profit target of a bullish pennant. The level is obtained by measuring the height of the pennant and projecting it upward from its breakout point.

On the downside, ETH could retest $4,100 if bulls fail to hold the $4,500 support.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) are in their overbought regions but tilted downward. The recent correction aligns with short-term pullbacks often seen after a period of overheated conditions in both indicators.