Dogecoin Price Prediction: Profit-taking in DOGE hits monthly high, raising the risk of a crash

Dogecoin (DOGE) hovers below its key weekly level of $0.18 at the time of writing on Monday, signaling a waning of bullish momentum. DOGE is flashing early warning signs, as on-chain data indicates rising selling pressure among holders, with profit-taking having surged to a monthly high and dormant wallet activity rising.

Dogecoin holders' booking profits hit monthly high

Santiments’ Network Realized Profit/Loss (NPL) metric indicates that DOGE holders are booking some profits.

As shown in the graph below, the NPL experienced a significant spike on Saturday, marking the highest profit booking activity since early May. The spike indicates that holders are, on average, selling their bags at a significant profit and increasing the selling pressure.

Dogecoin NPL chart. Source: Santiment

Looking at Santiment’s Age Consumed index also raises bearish signs. The spikes in this index suggest dormant tokens (tokens stored in wallets for a long time) are in motion, and it can be used to spot short-term local tops or bottoms. As in the case of the dog-themed meme coin, history shows that the spikes were followed by a decline in DOGE's price as holders moved their tokens from wallets to exchanges, thereby increasing selling pressure.

The most recent uptick on Saturday was the highest spike since early May, which forecasted that DOGE was ready for a downtrend.

DOGE Age Consumed chart. Source: Santiment

Dogecoin Price Prediction: DOGE is poised for a downleg as it closes below key support

Dogecoin price faced rejection from its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.195 on Wednesday and declined by more than 9%, closing below its weekly support level at $0.181 the following day. DOGE continued its decline by nearly 3% until Sunday. At the time of writing on Monday, it hovers at around $0.176.

If DOGE continues its correction, it could extend the decline toward its April 22 low of $0.157.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart reads 38, below its neutral level of 50, indicating bearish momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on the daily chart also displayed a bearish crossover, giving sell signals and further supporting the bearish thesis.

DOGE/USDT daily chart

However, if DOGE recovers and closes above its weekly resistance at $0.181, it could extend the rally toward its next resistance, its 50-day EMA at $0.195.