Dogecoin Price Forecast: DOGE hangs by a thread, as on-chain metrics warn of 35% decline

Dogecoin price was not captivated by the Bitcoin spike of 30% since June 8, opting for consolidation above a short-term support level that will define the future of DOGE. A failure to maintain the support increases the probability that the meme token tests the May 19 low of $0.195.

Dogecoin price has no room for failures

Despite the impressive Bitcoin breach of the psychologically important $40,000, Dogecoin price has not leveraged the BTC rally for a sizeable rally. It is a disappointing response to the most important cryptocurrency event since the May 23 low. Such a withdrawal suggests that DOGE searches for a different catalyst or is more likely swayed by a bearish objective.

Dogecoin price has suggested many potential patterns since the May 19 crash, but none has carried the staying power to reach completion. Today, Dogecoin price illustrates a complex topping formation extending back to May 23, with a clear support line that DOGE is currently holding. The level marks a line in the sand for the altcoin and is the most important barrier to a test of $0.195.

A daily close below the June 13 low of $0.287 will free Dogecoin price to initiate the decline to the May 19 low. The May 23 low of $0.246 will be notable support, but the downside momentum accumulated in the complex topping process should best it.

After the May 19 low, Dogecoin price has a clear path to $0.195, representing a 36% decline from the support level. If the slide is within the context of a breakdown in the cryptocurrency complex, DOGE may target the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $0.143.

DOGE/USD daily chart

To shake up the bearish outlook, Dogecoin price will need a daily close above the anchored value-weighted average price (anchored VWAP) at $0.353. DOGE will still have overcome the 50-day SMA at $0.403 and the 2021 rising trend line at $0.426 before a credible bullish outlook can gain traction.

According to the current IntoTheBlock In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) data, Dogecoin price is suffocated by resistance (out of the money addresses) between $0.318 and $0.337, where 196.42k addresses hold 15.36 billion DOGE. 

The range reveals a challenging journey for Dogecoin to defeat the anchored VWAP at $0.353.

DOGE IOMAP - IntoTheBlock

Conversely, the IOMAP shows no support (in the money addresses) down to $0.263, warning of a bearish outlook in the short term.

In the following video, FXStreet's analysts discuss the outlook for DOGE price and how Elon Musk might be the only one who can save DOGE from a crash.

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