Despite the recent drop, Ethereum’s long-term pattern remains bullish
Although Ethereum (ETHUSD) is currently trading ~36% below its August 2025 high, it remains in a bullish pattern. Specifically, it’s been in an ascending triangle since 2020. See Figure 1 below. An ascending triangle is defined by higher lows and equal highs.
Figure 1: Ethereum’s daily price action since 2015
In this case, we must go back to the ~$110 low from 2020. It then rallied to nearly $5000 on several occasions, but these were false breakouts, as most highs were contained around $4100.
Thus, Ethereum remains in a long-term uptrend, as indicated by the lower, ascending dotted trendline. If ETH holds that sloping trendline, an immediate breakout above $4100 would target approximately $5525 on a linear scale: $1535+($4100-110). If Ethereum drops to ~$2200 support first and then breaks out, we can expect ~$6190.
From a log-scale perspective, the triangle's maximum width targets a whopping $60-80K. These numbers sound astronomical because they are ~2100% higher than current levels. However, ETH has already risen ~2800% from its $110 level in March 2020 in less than six years: (3150-110)/110. Thus, another >2000% gain in a few years is not out of the ordinary.
Author
Dr. Arnout Ter Schure
Intelligent Investing, LLC
After having worked for over ten years within the field of energy and the environment, Dr.
