Crypto’s next bear market will have a brand-new trigger: Willy Woo

The next crypto bear market could be particularly brutal and driven by a business cycle downturn that has never been seen in crypto before, according to analyst Willy Woo.

The next bear market “will be defined by another cycle people forget about,” said Woo on Monday.

He said that we’ve previously had two cycles superimposed based upon the Bitcoin halving events every four years and the M2 global money supply. 

“Central banks inject M2 debasement in four-year cycles [and] both superimpose,” he said.

However, the next bear market will be defined by the business cycle, explained Woo. The last business cycle downturns that really took hold were 2008 and 2001, before crypto markets were invented, he said. 

If we get a biz cycle downtown, like 2001 or 2008, it will test how BTC trades. Will it drop like tech stocks or will it drop like gold?

Business cycles could impact liquidity

A business cycle downturn is a period of economic contraction where GDP declines, unemployment rises, consumer spending falls, and business activity slows. It is also commonly referred to as a recession and typically follows periods of expansion.

Woo’s point is that crypto markets don’t exist in isolation and are affected by these broader economic cycles, particularly through their impact on liquidity.

The 2001 business cycle downturn, also known as the “dot-com bubble,” saw increasing unemployment and a 50% fall in the US stock markets (S&P 500) over two years. It was triggered by the collapse of overvalued tech companies and excessive speculation. 

In 2008, the “financial crisis” saw a large GDP contraction, a surge in unemployment, and a 56% drop in the S&P 500. It was triggered by a subprime mortgage crisis, banking system collapse, and credit freeze.

Bear market timing

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) tracks four main indicators to identify recessions: employment, personal income, industrial production and retail sales.

There was a spike in early 2020 due to the pandemic-induced lockdowns, but it was an extremely short recession. Currently, there is no imminent recession threat, though elevated risk remains.

This cycle has also been complicated by the introduction of trade tariffs, which have already trimmed growth in the first half of 2025 and are expected to continue dragging on GDP growth through the first half of 2026.

Historical business cycles and recessions. Source: NBER

Woo concluded that markets are speculative, meaning they price in future events, including M2 money supply. “Either BTC is saying to the global markets the top is in, or BTC is going to catch up,” he said.