Crypto: Sell-the-growth continues

Market overview

The crypto market capitalisation grew by 1% over the past day and is down 1% from a week ago. Bitcoin received a boost from reports of a criminal investigation against the head of the Federal Reserve, which created momentum for a flight from US assets. In our view, this precedent is negative for risk appetite. 

Bitcoin jumped to $92,500 but saw a significant influx of sellers, returning to $90,300 at the time of writing. Testing of the 50-day moving average as support continues. A slip below $90K could have a strong psychological effect, quickly taking the price to $87K and then sending it lower below $80K.

XRP is losing for the seventh day in a row, like Bitcoin, rolling back to the 50-day MA and close to the round level of $2.0. The coin is still up 10% since the beginning of the year, but the initial momentum has clearly lost steam, as there are too many people in the markets willing to sell on the rise. Most likely, this change in strategy for all cryptocurrencies will characterise the market in the coming months.

News background

The total open interest in Bitcoin derivatives has fallen to its lowest level since the end of 2022, according to CryptoQuant. Historically, reaching such levels has preceded periods of consolidation or even bullish reversals.

Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 in a base case scenario, according to VanEck's forecast. This will happen if the first cryptocurrency becomes a currency for international settlements and enters the reserves of central banks. The main obstacle to mass adoption remains the scalability of the network. VanEck emphasised the importance of developing second-level solutions that will speed up transactions and reduce commissions.

Monero (XMR) is regaining its status as the leading anonymous coin amid the crisis in the Zcash ecosystem following the departure of its development team. The asset has been growing steadily for several weeks, outperforming most of its competitors in the sector.

There are more and more signs in the crypto market pointing to the end of the sell-off. Among them are the stabilisation of outflows from ETFs, the situation with perpetual futures and positions on the CME, according to JPMorgan.

MSCI's decision on 6 January regarding companies accumulating cryptocurrencies is also favourable for cryptocurrencies. The global provider of stock indices has decided not to exclude them from its indices during the review in February 2026.