BTC, Nasdaq futures drop as Oracle earnings revive AI bubble fears
- Bitcoin slipped below $90,000 as traders treated the Fed’s rate cut as a sell the news event, unwinding optimism that had been priced in ahead of the decision.
- Oracle shares fall 12% on earnings and capex guidance, yet credit market signals suggest a repricing of risk rather than distress.
Risk assets are under pressure Thursday despite the Fed's rate cut, with Oracle's earnings miss piling on alongside the central bank's hawkish guidance.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, is trading near $90,000, representing a 2.8% drop over 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data. Futures tied to Wall Street's tech heavy index, Nasdaq, are down 0.80%.
Late Wednesday, Oracle published its fiscal second quarter 2026 earnings (Q2 FY26), covering the period ended Nov. 30, 2025. Total revenue came in slightly below consensus, with legacy software revenue down and new license sales particularly weak.
This has once again highlighted the gap between the debt-fueled AI infrastructure spending spree, the promised revenue and the reality of delayed cash flows hitting the coffers.
The Financial Times reported that Oracle’s earnings were overshadowed by a $15 billion jump in planned data centre spending and a revenue miss, while its long-term debt increased to $99.6 billion, a jump of 25% from one-year ago. The cloud infrastructure revenue came in at $4.1 billion, below expectations, relying further on debt expansion.
The report quoted Morgan Stanley as forecasting a surge in Oracle's net debt to about $290 billion by 2028.
Shares on Oracle fell over 10% in after market hours, dragging down the AI stocks and offering bearish cues to the crypto market. The price swoon renewed social media focus on Oracle's five-year credit default, a type of an insurance contracts that reflects perceived default risk.
It has jumped to the highest since 2022. The surge reflects the material repricing of risk, according to the Special Situations newsletter.
"Historically, ORCL CDS traded around 20–40 bps, so 117 bps represents a material repricing of risk, but not a distressed profile," the newsletter service said on X.
"Oracle 5Y CDS graph looks exciting $ORCL until you run the math and realize that it is only pricing in 1.93% probability of default per year and a 9% 5 year cumulative probability of default," it added.
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CoinDesk Analysis Team
CoinDesk
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