- Bitcoin price continues to consolidate around the $19,000 to $20,000 levels for the second week.
- Market participants should be prepared for a sweep of $17,593 if the $18,800 support level fails to hold.
- A breakdown of the $15,551 support level will signal an invalidation of the bullish outlook.
Bitcoin price has been in a steady consolidation for more than two weeks and shows no signs of directional bias. However, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) announcement on October 7 could trigger a volatile episode for BTC that could resolve its range tightening and establish a directional bias.
Bitcoin price and the big picture
Bitcoin price remains above $19,157, which is the highest traded volume level for 2022, aka Point of Control (POC). As mentioned in the previous article, buyers are safe as long as BTC remains above the POC; however, a breakdown could result in a steep correction to the next high-volume node at $15,551.
Beyond this support floor, there are two crucial levels at $13,575 and $11,989, where a macro bottom could occur for BTC. Not a lot has changed on this three-day chart for Bitcoin, but investors need to keep a close eye on the POC at $19,157 and the immediate support level at $15,551.
BTCUSDT 3-day chart
The next important chart is the eight-hour chart of Bitcoin price coupled with the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has accurately predicted the local top/bottom formation since May 30.
After a brief consolidation between the $18,000 and $19,000 levels, Bitcoin price shot up to $20,400, and the RSI also broke above the 43 to 46 hurdle and flipped it into a support level. The rally that originated here formed a local top at $20,500, which coincided with RSI forming the seventh top at the 65 to 72 hurdle.
A closer look at the Bitcoin price shows a bear flag in play. As the name indicates, this technical formation contains a flagpole, which was formed as BTC crashed 18% between September 12 and 19. The consolidation in the form of an ascending parallel channel resulted in the flag formation.
A breakdown of this technical pattern forecasts an 18% downswing to $15,800, obtained by adding the flagpole’s height to the breakout point at $19,417.
BTCUSDT 8-hour chart
Additionally, the realized price of whales holding more than 1,000 BTC is around $15,800. The realized price of these BTC is calculated by taking into account the volumes flowing in and out of exchanges and the Bitcoin price at that time.
Interestingly, this number coincides perfectly with the technical forecasts, adding more credence to the possibility of a steep correction to $15,800.
BTC Realized Price
While the initial outlook for Bitcoin price might seem bearish from the above explanation, investors should look at this potential crash to $15,800 as an opportunity to accumulate BTC and altcoins at a discount.
A surge in buying pressure at this level that results in a U-turn could be the best buying opportunity before Bitcoin price kick-starts a run-up to fill the CME gap, extending from $27,365 to $28,740.
These gaps are formed in Bitcoin price as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) halts trading at the weekend. Therefore, a rebalance of these inefficiencies could be another key driver that triggers a reversal at $15,800.
BTCUSD CME 12-hour chart
On the other hand, if the selling pressure continues to build up on the back of rising geopolitical tensions and worsening economic conditions, Bitcoin price could crash to $15,800 and fail to recover. If this downswing pushes BTC to flip the $15,551 support level into a resistance barrier, it will invalidate the bullish thesis detailed above.
In such a case, market participants should prepare for a potential crash to $13,575 and $11,989.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
Google, Apple could remove Binance from their app store on Philippines SEC request
The Philippines SEC has requested Google and Apple to remove applications controlled by Binance from their App stores. The exchange’s Philippines-based users are finding the exchange inaccessible to remove their funds.
XRP rallies as Ripple slams SEC for penalties, asks regulator to establish likelihood of future violations
Ripple filed its response to the SEC lawsuit on Monday, arguing that XRP institutional sales before and after the court ruling show no disregard for the law. The firm asks for a civil penalty of no more than $10 million against the $2 billion requested by the SEC.
Here’s why Ondo price hit new ATH amid bearish market outlook Premium
Ondo price shows no signs of slowing down after setting up an all-time high (ATH) at $1.05 on March 31. This development is likely to be followed by a correction and ATH but not necessarily in that order.
PENDLE price soars 10% after Arthur Hayes’ optimism on Pendle derivative exchange
Pendle price is among the top performers in the cryptocurrency market today, posting double-digit gains. Its peers in the altcoin space are not as forthcoming even as the market enjoys bullish sentiment inspired by Bitcoin (BTC) price.
Bitcoin: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin (BTC) price briefly slipped below the $60,000 level for the last three days, attracting buyers in this area as the fourth BTC halving is due in a few hours. Is the halving priced in for Bitcoin? Or will the pioneer crypto note more gains in the coming days?