Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to break above critical $4,000 on several occasions, but the market is not ready to a decisive breakthrough. Not yet. While stability is considered being a good thing for the industry often criticized for excessive volatility and unpredictability, the dead calm period has been dragging on for too long. As the pressure on the market builds up, a decisive breakthrough in either direction of the range might trigger violent swings, especially during weekends, when the liquidity is thinner than usual.
What’s going on in the market
This week has been packed with altcoin news. Moreover, less popular coins like NEM, Tezos, Ontology and Maker performed very well on the back of positive fundamental developments specific to the projects.
Thus, Tezos (ZXT) has become an absolute market leader, gaining nearly 70% in recent seven days. The coin jumped to the 20th place in the global cryptocurrency ratting after the first voting on protocol updates.
Ontology (ONT) has been growing strongly too. The coin gained 30% in recent seven days amid a series of high-profile partnerships and tokens giveaway announcements.
On the regulatory front, Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) and the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) want to create a comprehensive regulation for the cryptocurrency industry. They announced a consultation period to gather opinions from the community that will last until May 15.
CBOE decided to ditch Bitcoin futures contracts in March citing low market liquidity while Citigroup announced that it wouldn’t issue a proprietary stablecoin. While the competitors like JP Morgan and Mizuho try to embrace digital money concept, Citibank prefers to focus on improving and upgrading the existing systems.
BTC/USD, 1D chart
The technical picture has improved slightly since the previous Friday as BTC/USD managed to break above $3,900. The digital currency No.1 touched $4,057 on Thursday, March 21, but quickly retraced below $4,000. This line in the sand separates us from an extended recovery with the next aim at $4,187 (February high) and $4,200. Once it is cleared, the upside movement will gain traction, aiming at $5,000. A sustainable move above $5,000 will signal that Bitcoin is out of the woods.
On the downside, $3,900 is the key. This area served as a strong resistance during the previous week, now it is a formidable support. Bulls are likely to defend it with their last strength. However, if bear have an upper hand at this level, the sell-off will take the price towards$3,800, the next important area on the way to the South. DMA50, located at $3,760 will create additional support around $3,800 barrier.
Considering that the Relative Strength Index on a daily and weekly charts is flat, the market is not ready for a decisive breakthrough. It means that we may spend another week or two in a range.
The Forecast Poll of experts improved since the previous week as both weekly and monthly expectations are bullish with the median price above $4,000. Meanwhile, the longer-term forecast remains bearish with experts average price estimations as lo as $3,290.
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