Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC rally back to $40,000 in jeopardy as Grayscale’s demand diminishes

  • Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust falls by 22% in 14 days, suggesting that the institutional force is decreasing.
  • Bitcoin needs additional institutional fund influx to return to $40,000.
  • The 50 SMA caps BTC/USD upside on the 4-hour chart.

Bitcoin is trading slightly above $33,000 after plunging from January’s peak near $42,000. Investors, speculators, and analysts believe that the pioneer cryptocurrency can hit price levels beyond $40,000. However, strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co say that the uptrend may be an uphill battle in light of decreasing demand from Grayscale, the most prominent digital asset manager in the world.

Flop in institutional demand for Bitcoin weakens uptrend to $40,000

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust has grown to $20 billion over the last few months due to increasing demand as the largest digital asset rallied month-over-month to the record high near $40,000. However, over the last couple of weeks, the fund has dropped 22%, surpassing BTC’s 17% plunge in the same period, according to Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the lead strategist JPMorgan.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust 

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust 

The investment bank strategist has found out that the decrease in institutional fund influx may hinder the uptrend to $40,000. At the same time, the risk is that momentum traders will continue to unwind Bitcoin futures positions.” JPMorgan maintains that “the near-term balance of risks is still skewed to the downside.”

It is worth noting that holders of Bitcoins with coins between 1,000 and 10,000 gave consistently increased over the last 30 days. According to the holder distribution model, an on-chain metric developed a Santiment, behavioral analysis platform; these addresses shot up from roughly 2,100 to approximately 2,350. The 10% rise shows that buying pressure behind Bitcoin is still growing despite the fall in price.

Bitcoin holder distribution

Bitcoin holder distribution

Bitcoin is trading at $33,380 at the time of writing. Slightly on the upside, bulls are dealing with a hurdle presented by the 50 Simple Moving Average. Moreover, more resistance is highlighted at $34,000.

The pioneer cryptocurrency’s uptrend will be validated if the price closes the day above $34,000 and the 50 SMA on the 4-hour chart. For now, the least resistance path is sideways, as shown by the leveling Relative Strength Index.

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

BTC/USD 4-hour chart

On the downside, Bitcoin is not out of the wounds yet, and the short term support at the 200 SMA may be retest, especially if the resistance at $34,000 remains unshaken. Other key levels to keep in mind include $32,000, $30,000 and $28,000.

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