Bitcoin (BTC) is “seriously cheap” at $56,000 relative to network activity — and that means only one thing, one analyst says.
In a tweet on Nov. 24, Philip Swift, creator of analytics platform LookIntoBitcoin, highlighted a bull flag on Bitcoin’s Advanced NVT Signal.
Bitcoin “deep into oversold territory”
Advanced NVT uses Bitcoin’s market capitalizatio and network volume to determine the extent to which BTC is overbought or oversold at a certain price point.
As Swift explains in an introduction to the metric, it builds on the original NVT, accounting for changes in investor habits as Bitcoin matures over time.
Advanced NVT is thus the total Bitcoin market cap divided by the 90-day moving average of network transaction volume. Currently, it is “deep into oversold territory,” and when that happens, a price rise soon follows.
“Bitcoin is looking seriously cheap relative to network activity here on high time frames,” Swift wrote.
“Expecting a strong reaction in the not too distant future.”
An accompanying chart shows that Advanced NVT is now at its lowest since the start of 2020, with the exception of that year’s coronavirus crash and the 2021 miner shutdown in China.
Bitcoin Advanced NVT Signal chart. Source: Philip Swift/Twitter
Old hands remain in control
As Cointelegraph reported, NVT is far from the only on-chain indicator signaling a trend reversal in current conditions.
Relative strength index (RSI) values are likewise hinting at a BTC price rise, while a host of others refuse to flip bearish despite flagging sentiment.
In its latest weekly “The Week On-Chain” newsletter, released Tuesday, fellow on-chain analytics firm Glassnode further noted the “unique case” of short-term holders (STH) controlling the smallest amount of Bitcoin in three years, while spot prices remain relatively near all-time highs.
STH wallets are those that have spent Bitcoin within the past 155 days.
“Low STH supply is typical at the end of bear markets and in early bull markets, usually following long periods of accumulation,” analysts wrote.
“Seeing STH supply this low whilst price is near ATHs is a relatively unique case.”
Bitcoin short-term holder supply proportion chart. Source: Glassnode