Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC/USD has one strong resistance level at $11,500 – Confluence Detector


BTC/USD daily confluence detector

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BTC/USD bears have remained in control for the second straight day. BTC/USD is currently trading for $11,324.24. The daily confluence detector shows a lack of healthy support levels on the downside. Upfront, BTC/USD has one strong resistance at $11,500, which has the Previous Month high, one-hour Previous High, 4-hour Previous High, one-day Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level and 15-min Bollinger Band (middle curve).

Bitcoin Hashrate woes?

Bitcoin mining activity appears to be not reacting to the recent price rally from $9000 to about $12,000. As per Coinmetrics data, hashrate surged around July 7 and has remained mostly flat amid fluctuations to the downside. 

The hashrate is the sum total of miners trying to find hashes, which would create new valid blocks. Generally, there is a strong correlation between hashrate and price, as higher Bitcoin prices increase the profit margins for each miner. 

Hashrate growth seems to have slowed down since July, as the difficulty saw its first drop in early June. The dip in hashrate in mid-July, right after a significant difficulty increase, suggests that the balancing mechanism overshot. The difficulty was set too high for the available hashrate, slowing down block production. 

Most of July, BTC’s price remained steady. A dramatic rally took place in the second half of the month, with the price reaching over $11,500. Hashrate is currently below all-time highs despite two weeks passing since the major leg of the rally. 

During protracted rallies, hashrate tends to trail physical supply chains constrain price as the supply of new miners. The cryptocurrency industry is currently experiencing additional disruptions due to the power struggle at Bitmain. According to an earlier Cointelegraph report, shipments of new mining devices from Bitmain are being halted for at least three months. As Bitmain’s competitors expand their operations, it is likely that the hashrate will resume growth soon.

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