Bitcoin outlook for June: Downward momentum persists below key resistance

After rising about 10% in the previous month, the crypto market caps bled again in May, recording a negative performance and returning below the 2.6 trillion USD mark. The key driver is the pressure on bitcoin and ether prices, which went down by about 3% and 11%, respectively.

The ongoing unresolved geopolitical conflict in the Middle East led to cautious sentiment, especially with the fast-changing dynamics in the talks. Market participants remain vigilant for changes, which is reflected in the ETF outflows, recording over 1.4 billion USD of US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs and over 240 million USD of ether ETFs. The subdued appetite may continue to put pressure on the overall crypto market.

Recent developments

Meanwhile, the markets rely too heavily on Strategy’s bitcoin purchases, as the firm keeps on buying while disregarding the current price movements. This condition causes the firm’s average buying price to be elevated at around 75,700 USD, keeping markets cautious about potential forced liquidations.

Aside from that, the vote to propose semi-monthly STRC dividend payments adds another layer of complexity, because, given the recent report of losses from the bitcoin holdings, the firm may be forced to partially liquidate its holdings to pay the dividend regularly within a tighter timeframe.

On the regulatory front, the recent confrontation of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon with Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong over the CLARITY Act regarding the stablecoin issuers to be allowed to offer yield-bearing rewards created another uncertainty on the passage of the Act. Simultaneously, Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis, who is a huge proponent of crypto, emphasized the need for the passage to ensure the US leads in shaping the global crypto regulatory landscape rather than being overtaken by other countries.

Blockchain condition

On the blockchain, the markets recently pumped up their pace in deposits into exchanges. The flows increase the Balance on Exchanges to multi-week highs and show market intentions of selling during the previous recovery. The deposits intensified when the prices started to decline, which continued until last week.

Source: Glassnode, From: Exness FMS dashboard, accessed on 01 Jun 2026

At the same time, with long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs) realizing more losses recently, the pressure to liquidate their holdings increases as the realized losses are trending downward, increasing the odds for bigger negative outcomes.

Source: Glassnode, From: Exness FMS dashboard, accessed on 01 Jun 2026

Technical outlook

After failing to sustain above the psychological resistance at 80000, BTCUSD has declined in the last 3 weeks and closed below the 13-week exponential moving average (EMA13). The broader lower swings with diverging bearish EMAs suggest a bearish continuation potential.

Source: Exness Terminal, accessed on 01 Jun 2026

Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, BTCUSD shows a clear formation of lower highs and lows after closing below the resistance at 75000. At the same time, the 1-month EMA (EMA30) death-crossed the 3-month EMA (EMA92), emphasizing the downward momentum.

Source: Exness Terminal, accessed on 01 Jun 2026

In the short-term, BTCUSD has a tendency to go lower. However, the previous consolidation within the 66000-70500 range may cap the bearish momentum.