Bitcoin jumps on the perfect technical bounce and positive signals out of Ukraine

Bitcoin (BTC) price was on the back foot over the weekend as, together with other cryptocurrencies, it was the only asset tradable on headlines and news coming out of Ukraine and Russia. As the headlines were not favourable, BTC shed some market value and slipped below $40,000. But following the announcement in the early hours of today, of a new summit between Putin and Biden, markets jumped, as it showed there is still room to talk and a diplomatic solution. Now BTC looks ready to book around 10% gains in the coming trading day.. 

BTC price jumps on the fact that de-escalation is still possible in the near term

Bitcoin price action fell on the back foot on Sunday after several leaders came out quite bearish on the situation between Russia and Ukraine during the Munich Safety Summit. But that sentiment shifted overnight after Macron and Putin came out saying that a cease-fire was in the making, and later a new summit was announced at which both Putin and Biden would be present. Expect this sigh of relief in the markets to continue throughout the day and see another acceleration once the US session kicks in. 

Translated into BTC price action, this means a return to $39,780, near $40,000, erasing the error from Sunday and paring back some negative headlines. Once Bitcoin price pops up above $40,000 again, expect more room to open up towards $41,756, which was the baseline of the bearish triangle spotted last week (dotted blue lines). Bitcoin is set to book 10% of gains this week and show its resilience against geopolitical woes with that return.

BTC/USD daily chart

Risk to the downside remains, of course – especially if there is an escalation of the situation in the Donbass region of Ukraine as several reports came out over the weekend that shooting had intensified and more heavy artillery was being deployed. One fatal error such as hitting a civilian post, could easily trigger a spiral of violence and set markets back sharply, with BTC bulls being pushed against $38,073. A break below there would see another correction of around 4% towards $36,709, and start to flag major issues for Bitcoin from trading in correction territory.