Bitcoin eyes record high as tailwinds build, and BTC teases a golden cross

After briefly breaking higher to 107k, BTC is back consolidating between 102-105k, a familiar range over the past 10 days, as attention remains on 109.5k and fresh all-time highs. 

Concerns over US debt grow

BTC reclaimed 105k after Moody’s became the third ratings agency to downgrade the US sovereign credit rating. The move tells investors that US government bonds, one of the safest assets in the world, now carry more risk than they did previously. Moody’s lowered the previously perfect rating to Aa1, citing concerns over the country’s $36 trillion sovereign debt.  

Furthermore, the debt pile could be increased further should Trump’s “big and beautiful” tax bill be approved. The bill risks sharply increasing US public debt. US long-term borrowing costs rose at the start of this week following the congressional committee advancing the budget bill on Sunday. The bill is estimated to add trillions of dollars to the federal deficit over the next decade. Although the White House argues that the bill does not add to the deficit and would accelerate economic growth 

The bill and Moody's credit downgrade have increased concerns over the sustainability of US public finances. The USD index has fallen towards 100.00, and BTC could become increasingly more attractive as a hedge against these growing fiscal concerns. Bitcoin trades just 4% away from its record high and is up 40% from its April low. 

The Senate passes the Genius bill

The Senate voted 66-32 in favour of the Genius Act, also known as the stablecoin bill. This paves the way for a full Senate debate and the bill's passage, which would establish the first federal framework for stablecoin regulation. 

The bill's progress has been seen as a positive development for the crypto industry, which has been seeking clearer regulatory guidelines. Favourable regulatory developments could help increase indoor adoption, and if current trends continue, they could help the cryptocurrency reach new highs in the coming months. 

Another tailwind for Bitcoin was an announcement by JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon that the US investment bank will allow Bitcoin purchases for clients. At the same time, analysts at JP Morgan forecast that the largest cryptocurrency will outperform gold in 2025. The bank highlighted that US state purchases of Bitcoin for strategic reserves are a sustained positive catalyst for BTC's performance. The outlook points to growing institutional interest and increased adoption. 

Bitcoin technical analysis 

Bitcoin trades within a rising channel dating back to its 74.5k April low. The price is consolidating within that channel around the 105k level. This marks the third consolidation event, 85k, 95k, 105k, each occurring around every 10k. The consolidation could continue in the near term to bring the RSI out of oversold territory.  

A golden cross formation could be on the verge of occurring when the 50 SMA crosses above the 200 SMA in a buy signal. 

Buyers will look to break meaningfully above 105k to bring 109.7k to the ATH into focus. Above here, 115k could be the next target, which is also the trendline resistance dating back to 2017. 

Support can be seen at 102k, the lower band of the recent consolidation pattern, below here 100k comes into focus ahead of 97.5k. 

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