Bitcoin bear market will last until 2020 - Arthur Hayes, the CEO of BitMEX, says

• BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes says the downtrend is not over.
• He retains positive longer-term forecast, says Bitcoin can hit $40,000.

Arthur Hayes, the CEO of BitMEX, says that the bear trend on the cryptocurrency market could last for another 18-month period, until the spring of 2020. However, despite bearish calls, he is still positive about Bitcoin price in the longer-term time frame, saying that it can easily reach a new all-time high amid supportive fundamental or regulatory developments.

Speaking at Yahoo Finance U.K. event in London, the founder of Bitcoin Merchantile Exchange, focused on trading Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, Arthur Hayes compared the current market with the conditions of 2013 and suggested that the conditions could become worse before they would start improving.

“I’m just basing it off my previous experience. I started in bitcoin in 2013 when the price went from $250 to $1,300 and then from 2014 to 2015 was sort of the nuclear bear market. Price crashed, volume crashed — very, very difficult to make money,” he said.

Hayes is one of a few industry experts who predicts more pain for Bitcoin and other digital assets. Earlier he forecasted that Bitcoin would drop to $3,000 - $5,000 before a favorable regulatory decision would send the prices to the moon. Despite his gloomy predictions, he thinks that the SEC's decision to approve Bitcoin ETF would trigger a sharp rally up to $50,000 before the end of 2018.

“The market is blowing off some steam right now. I think the market is probably going through some healthy consolidation, but I do believe the long-term trend will be greater adoption of bitcoin and similar technologies,” he added.

A hardcore Bitcoin bull Mike Novogratz revised his optimistic forecast in October, saying that the coin would have a hard time returning to $9,000 handle by the end of the year. Earlier he expected to see it at $40,000.

 

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is hovering around $6,300. A sustainable movement higher will allow the coin to develop a more extended recovery towards the short-term target at $6,360, created by SMA50 (4-hour) and the lower border of the previous consolidation channel.