Analyst: This is what can be expected from Bitcoin price before the next halving in April 2023


Share:
  • Bitcoin price has historically breached the macro downtrend between 365 to 397 days before a halving.
  • The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled for April 2023, which stands to be within the expected range of the breakout.
  • On the micro-scale, BTC is performing exceptionally, reinforcing Bitcoin season.

Bitcoin is still the flagbearer of the crypto industry, and a lot is expected out of the biggest cryptocurrency in the world. While BTC has not been able to deliver per the expectation for a while now, things might be changing soon if this setup plays out.

Bitcoin in the macro timeframe

Bitcoin price dropped from its all-time high of $67,500 in 2022 to trade at $27,000 at the time of writing. Many analyses tried to pin this drawdown on macroeconomic events as well as internal crypto company failures. However, per crypto analyst and trader Rekt Capital, these events actually structured the repeat of a pattern.

Since the halving of 2016, Bitcoin price has been following this pattern which has played out successfully twice in a row now. According to Rekt Capital, BTC moved to form lows per a macro downtrend which the biggest cryptocurrency in the world broke out of close to a year before the halving.

In 2015 this happened 366 days before the halving, and a similar occurrence took place in 2019 395 days before the halving. Should this setup play out again, Bitcoin would successfully repeat this pattern for the third time as the next halving of April 2023 stands only 397 days away.

Bitcoin breakout before halving

Bitcoin breakout before halving

If the monthly candlestick close of Bitcoin is above the downtrend line, the macro downtrend would be invalidated. Breaking out of the same would potentially support a price rise in the long run. This is because the breakout before the previous halving noted BTC increasing by more than 183%. Although a similar rise cannot be expected this time around, the crypto asset would at least keep above $25,000.

Bitcoin season once again

Bitcoin price on the micro-scale has been performing pretty well, considering the nearly 35% rise observed by the cryptocurrency in the last seven days. Trading at $27,700, BTC rose from almost falling below $19,000.

But the rise in Bitcoin price was not met with similar enthusiasm in the case of altcoins, as only some of them managed to mark significant rises. Most of the top 50 altcoins over the last 90 days had lesser increases than BTC. 

Bitcoin season

Bitcoin season

Consequently, the market regressed to the Bitcoin season. For the altcoin season to arrive again, 75% of the top 50 altcoins must perform better than Bitcoin, which seems far away for now.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Join Telegram

Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended content


Follow us on Telegram

Stay updated of all the news

Join Telegram

Recommended Content

Editors’ Picks

Ethereum (ETH) holders gear up for Shanghai hard fork, will token unlock be delayed?

Ethereum (ETH) holders gear up for Shanghai hard fork, will token unlock be delayed?

Ethereum network’s key upgrade, the Shanghai hard fork, is planned to go live on April 12. This is the most significant event since the altcoin’s transition to Proof-of-Stake, widely known as the Merge.

More Ethereum news

Sandbox whale moves $260m of SAND to new address on Day 2 of Metaverse Fashion Week

Sandbox whale moves $260m of SAND to new address on Day 2 of Metaverse Fashion Week

The Sandbox stands among the leading metaverse platforms, boasting commendable price performance in 2023, having risen almost 70% year-to-date. The metaverse project has also scored notable high-profile partnerships. 

More Sandbox News

This is how bearish whales threaten MATIC’s bullish potential, is a 10% plunge underway?

This is how bearish whales threaten MATIC’s bullish potential, is a 10% plunge underway?

Polygon MATIC price is trading with a bearish bias in lower timeframes, but bulls are leading in the higher timeframes. The network has recorded strong retail demand and market reaction following the Polygon zkEVM product launch.

More Polygon News

Shiba Inu could rise 15% by the end of the week, here’s why

Shiba Inu could rise 15% by the end of the week, here’s why

Shiba Inu price has recovered from a massive sell-off earlier in the week. The revival comes as SHIB takes advantage of the broader rally in the crypto industry, with Bitcoin (BTC) steadily peeling off its losses by rising 5.33% in the last 24 hours. 

More Shiba News

Bitcoin: Should you trust this BTC sell signal or wait for $34,000?

Bitcoin: Should you trust this BTC sell signal or wait for $34,000?

Bitcoin price shows a clear picture of its rally after it breached a long-term bullish pattern in mid-January. As the rally takes a breather, sell signs have started to emerge, which is putting investors in a confused state. 

Read full analysis

BTC

ETH

XRP