Yield Curve Still Inverted Despite Fed Rate Cut

Mike “Mish” Shedlock's Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc

Despite yesterday's rate cut and significant moves higher in long-dated treasury yields, numerous inversions remain.

Fed Fails to Un-Invert Yield Curve

Huge portions of the yield curve remain inverted, just not as deep as a few weeks ago.

At the long end, the 30-year bond yield rose from 1.938% on August 28 to 2.375 on September 15.

Today, the long bond yield is now back to 2.22%.

Fed Struggling with Rates

The Effective Fed Funds Rate should be in the range of 1.75% to 2.00% following yesterday's cut but it isn't.

Yesterday, the rate should have been in the middle of the range of 2.00% to 2.25% but was at the high end. On Monday it was at 2.30% and thus outside the range.

The Fed has been struggling for day keeping interest rates in its target range.

On September 17, I noted US Overnight Interest Rate Surges to 10%, Fed Injects Emergency $75 Billion.

10% is more than a bit outside the range but the effective FF rate closed at 2.30% following emergency injections. The emergency injections continued for a third day today and will continue for a fourth day tomorrow.

Something is very wrong somewhere.

Author

Mike “Mish” Shedlock's

Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.