The US dollar made some headway on Tuesday and economic data pointed at more to come. Bond yields falling sharply across the curve, lifting the yen across the board, while NZD and GBP are the weakest. Real 10 yr bond yields fall further to -1.10%, highlighting that inflation expectations remain ahead of nominal yields. The Bank of Canada decision and press conference are due up next (more below).
The first look at US Q3 GDP will be released on Thursday and it's likely to be a dud but the market is now focused on the strength of the rebound in Q4 and beyond. Data on Tuesday was encouraging with US consumer confidence rising to 113.8 from 108.3. The Richmond Fed climbed to +12 from +3 expected. Housing is also growing into a tailwind once again with new home sales at 800K versus 760K expected.
The mood in markets overall continues to improve and we're headed toward the risk-positive seasonal period through year end. Commodities continue to attract a solid bid despite mixed messages from China.
Looking ahead, the tone for central banks in the coming months might be set by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday. A taper to $1B per week from $2B per week is priced in, but there's a small chance the BOC skips right to zero, limiting QE only to reinvestment. Pay close attention to press conference, as it will magnify the sharp moves.
Recent Canadian data has been strong and the BOC is undoubtedly tuned into the global inflation debate along with the Canadian tailwind from commodities and the potential risks around housing. The OIS market is pricing in nearly four rate hikes in 2022 and the BOC will have to either acknowledge it or push back. Given the inflationary winds, it will be tough to push back and that could boost the loonie. Alternatively, the 1.2420 trendline resistance from the September high has capped USD/CAD despite multiple attempts to break it. If the BOC pushes the 'transitory' narrative, stops above there could be run.
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