XAU/USD outlook: Gold surges through key $5,000 barrier and cracks $5,100

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

XAU/USD

Gold took out $5000 barrier in one single step on Monday, in a widely expected post-weekend action, but made a small surprise to traders by extension to $5100, which happened in just few hours of early Monday’s trading.

The yellow metal started trading with a gap higher and opened slightly above $5K following news over the weekend that added to strong bullish stance.

Growing signals about potential US attack on Iran contributed to strong migration into safety, also fueled by overall geopolitical situation being close to boiling point, weakening economic outlook with signs of deeper crisis on horizon, growing political and economic tensions between the US and EU (Greenland, tariffs) deteriorating situation in Ukraine (no big hopes from current peace talks), fragile situation in the Middle East region and strong demand for gold from investors and central banks.

This leaves very little space for any significant correction despite strongly overbought studies (daily / weekly / monthly) as traders do not dare to take profits on rallying market.

Overall picture remains firmly bullish from both technical and fundamental aspects, though fundamentals remain key driver, suggesting that the price could rise much more if current conditions deteriorate or at least stay unchanged.

Today’s close above $5000 is a minimum requirement to keep bulls intact for further advance, with clear break of $5100 to confirm bullish continuation.

The price is riding on an extended third wave of five-wave cycle from $3997 (Nov 18 higher low), with cracked round figure $5100 and session high / new all-time high at $5111, marking immediate resistances, followed by $5172 (Fibo 161.8% expansion), $5200 (round-figure) and $5253 (Fibo 176.4% expansion).

Minor support lays at $5050 (intraday low) followed by $5039 (20HMA) and the most significant psychological $5000 level (broken key resistance, reverted to strong support, also daily low) where extended dips should find firm ground.

Current structure favors very limited profit taking, with limited dips to mark consolidation and positioning for further upside.

Res: 5111; 5172; 5200; 5253.
Sup: 5040; 5000; 4965; 4937.

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

AUD/USD falls to near 0.7100 after slipping below 50-day EMA

AUD/USD depreciates after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7120 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the pair consolidating sideways within a rectangle pattern, as neither bulls nor bears gain control. The AUD/USD pair is holding a slight bearish tone however as it sits beneath both the nine-day and 50-day EMAs.

160.00: USD/JPY back near intervention territory after upbeat US jobs report

US Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations by a wide margin in May, with 172K jobs added. The US Dollar rebounds after the release, helping USD/JPY recover from its intraday lows. Warnings from Japanese authorities continue to limit upside potential near the 160.00 threshold.

Gold targets $4,300 amid stronger Dollar

Gold faces increasing selling interest and navigates the area of three-month lows near the $4,300 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal’s decline comes as traders assess the stronger-than-expected NFP, while the bid bias in the Greenback and higher US Treasury yields also collaborate with the retracement.

Cardano hits five-year low even as Hoskinson clarifies "break" isn't an exit

Cardano (ADA) price is down 10% at press time on Friday, extending losses over 30% so far this week amid Charles Hoskinson's clarification that "break" isn't an exit.

Week ahead – Fed countdown begins amid US inflation data and geopolitical risks

Fed Chair Warsh’s first meeting approaches as key US inflation data could reshape expectations. Oil prices remain elevated as US-Iran talks continue; tariffs also return to the spotlight. ECB is expected to hike; will it be a one-off move or is July live?

The US economy defies the rules: 100 days into the Oil shock and the recession signal is still missing

More than three months after the start of the Iran war and the resulting disruption to global energy markets, the US economy continues to display remarkable resilience. The conflict has triggered a sharp rise in Oil prices, reignited inflationary pressures and fueled widespread concerns about a potential economic slowdown.