WTI Trades in a Short-term Range

JFD Team JFD

WTI traded in a consolidative manner today, staying within the short-term sideways range it has been oscillating in since April 5^th, between 63.15 and 64.70. Taking that into account, we will take a flat stance with regards to the short term. But bearing also in mind that the black liquid continues to trade above the longer-term upside support line drawn from the low of December 26^th, we see more chances for the price to exit the range to the upside rather than to the downside.

If the bulls decide to take charge from current levels, we may see them aiming for another test near the upper bound of the aforementioned short-term range, at around 64.70, where a decisive break would confirm a forthcoming higher high and perhaps signal the resumption of the prevailing uptrend. The bulls could then aim for the 65.50 level, marked by the high of November 1^st, and if they are not willing to give up there, then we could see extensions towards the peak of the previous day, at around 67.00.

Taking a look at our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI, although slightly below 50, turned up again. It could move back above its equilibrium level soon. However, the MACD remains below both its zero and trigger lines, which raises some concerns that a retreat could occur. But even if WTI exits the range to the downside, it would still be trading above the aforementioned upside line and thus, we would still see a decent chance for the bulls to jump back into the action.

In order to start examining the case of a bearish reversal, we prefer to wait for a clear dip below 61.85. Such a move could also bring the price below the upside line and may initially aim for the 60.40 zone, which prevented the price from moving higher on March 21^st and 26^th. Another break, below 60.40, could encourage the sellers to aim for the 58.30 area, which acted as a strong support from March 14^th until March 28^th.

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