|

WTI oil outlook: WTI oil in free fall, hits the lowest since 1999

WTI OIL

WTI oil future contract for May accelerated lower in early Monday's trading and hit the lowest since 1999 on over 16% fall during Asian / early European trading. The sentiment remains very weak and traders continue panic selling as demand weakens on daily basis and fears that US storage will fill soon. Weak global consumption over pandemic lockdown flooded markets with oil, with the latest decision of OPEC+ group to reduce daily production by 9.7 million bpd that will be effective from the beginning of May, having no positive impact on crashing oil prices. The contract fell to the lowest in 21 year at $14.20 zone in European trading on Monday, with next target at $10, coming in focus. Earlier comments that oil price can fall as low as $10 per barrel that would strongly hit all sectors in oil industry and likely be fatal for many oil refiners, are just step ahead of becoming reality. We predicted that oil price will be in a free-fall after break of critical $20 support zone and now witnessing the action. Some brief upticks can be expected meantime, more as positioning than any serious recovery attempts, however, oil is expected to face strong headwinds from $10 zone, where some basing attempts could be anticipated. Broken $20 zone marks the first significant resistance and only break here would provide temporary relief.

Res: 15.21; 16.66; 17.68; 18.88
Sup: 14.00; 13.14; 11.70; 10.00

US Crude

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

More from Slobodan Drvenica
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD recovers to 1.1750 region as 2025 draws to a close

Following the bearish action seen in the European session on Wednesday, EUR/USD regains its traction and recovery to the 1.1750 region. Nevertheless, the pair's volatility remains low as trading conditions thin out on the last day of the year.

GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3450 on modest USD recovery

GBP/USD remains under modest beairsh pressure and fluctuates at around 1.3450 on Wednesday. The US Dollar finds fresh demand due to the end-of-the-year position adjustments, weighing on the pair amid the pre-New Year trading lull. 

Gold retreats to $4,300 area, looks to post monthly gains

Gold stays on the back foot on the last day of 2025 and trades near $4,300, possibly pressured by profit-taking and position adjustments. Nevertheless, XAU/USD remains on track to post gains for December and extend its winning streak into a fifth consecutive month.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP prepare for a potential New Year rebound

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are holding steady on Wednesday after recording minor gains on the previous day. Technically, Bitcoin could extend gains within a triangle pattern while Ethereum and Ripple face critical overhead resistance. 

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).