Slobodan Drvenica
Windsor Brokers
US CRUDE OIL
WTI oil price extends pullback from new five-month high at $64.77 on Monday, driven by negative technical signals as well as revived concerns about global supply. Initial signals of pullback on overbought conditions and stochastics' / RSI bearish divergence have materialized and oil price entered corrective phase. Weakening daily momentum adds to the sentiment, with fresh bears probing through significant support at $63.45 (10SMA). Close below is needed to generate fresh signal for further easing, as daily stochastic is in steep fall and showing room for further downside, while RSI reversed from overbought zone. The action for now looks like price adjustment before broader bulls resume. Initial scenario suggests shallow pullback, contained by 10 SMA (support is also reinforced by rising thick 4-hr cloud) that would keep immediate bulls in play, while deeper dips should fin d ground above $63.11 (200SMA). Revived concerns in the market regarding global supply, as US oil producers are on track for further output increase while other main world oil producers in the OPEC+ group decided to cut production in order to stabilize and tighten oil market. However, risk that the cartel may decide to stop output reduction by 1.2 mln bpd on its meeting in June exists and keeps markets cautious, as renewed oversupply threats could again slash oil price.
Res: 63.94; 64.77; 65.00; 65.37
Sup: 63.47; 63.14; 62.26; 61.63
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC’s next breakout could propel it to $80,000 Premium
Bitcoin’s recent price consolidation could be nearing its end as technical indicators and on-chain metrics suggest a potential upward breakout. However, this move would not be straightforward and could punish impatient investors.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.