Gold rally extends to fresh record highs

Gold remained just shy of hitting $4,500 on Tuesday. The precious metal reached a record high in early Asian trading, extending its recent gains as safe‑haven demand was boosted by heightened geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.

Spot gold was quoted at $4,475.30 per ounce at 17:36 GMT.

Gold retreated well from its intraday high after a stronger U.S. GDP report. Safe-haven buying is evident in this holiday-shortened trading week, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Venezuela.

U.S. GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized rate in Q3, the fastest in two years, up from 3.8% in Q2 and beating 3.3% forecasts. The gain was driven by stronger consumer spending, exports, and government outlays. Consumer spending rose 3.5%, with solid growth in both goods and services. The data bolsters monetary policy hawks who oppose further U.S. rate cuts.

Bullion has jumped roughly 70% this year, fueled by geopolitical tensions, U.S. interest rate cuts, strong central bank purchases, and solid investment demand.

Gold continues to be supported by a softer U.S. dollar, expectations of a more dovish Fed stance in 2026, and sustained central bank demand. 

CME FedWatch:

·         CME FedWatch January rate cut probabilities have moved higher to 86.7% today from 77.90% on December 15, 2025.

·         February rate easing probabilities are at 54.4% today from 48.9% on December 15, 2025.

Technical analysis perspective:

Gold / US Dollar:

·         Spot gold decisively broke above the prior October record high of $4,380 yesterday, setting a new all‑time high at $4,497.70, just below the key psychological $4,500 level.

·         Prices may pull back to consolidate around the $4,380 area before attempting a clear break of the $4,500 barrier.

·         Gold is likely to trade in a $4,495–$4,430 range during this holiday‑thinned week.

Gold Daily chart:

GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) ETF:

·         GLD broke above the key 398–403 resistance zone yesterday, hitting a new all-time high of 411.95.

·         A pullback toward 403–398 is possible to solidify support before another move higher toward 414.50 and 419.

·         In holiday-thinned trade, the ETF may stay confined to a tight 408–412 range.

GLD daily chart:

GLD Seasonality:

Since 2006, GLD has risen an average of 0.7% in December 60% of the time, and 3.6% in January 70% of the time. However, this seasonal pattern has had little influence so far this month.