WTI Crude Oil Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]
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WTI Elliott Wave analysis
WTI is undergoing a correction following the sharp drop that pushed prices below $60—levels not seen since April 2021. While a recovery has begun, it’s expected to stay under the $72 mark before turning lower, potentially reaching below $50. This would continue the bearish trend that began in March 2022.
WTI has remained in a downward trend since March 2022. This bearish trend followed a clear 5-wave bullish impulse that began during the post-Covid recovery. In Elliott Wave Theory, such a 5-wave pattern is typically succeeded by a 3-wave corrective phase. The current bearish movement fits this model and is shaping into a double zigzag structure, with a probable end near $46, as seen on the daily chart.
This implies that WTI may see short-term rebounds but is likely to continue declining until a significant bullish impulse emerges above $87. The wave ((X))—a primary degree wave within the cycle w of supercycle (y)—bottomed below $81 in January 2025. This sets the stage for the current move downward as wave ((Y)) of w.
The recent drop from the peak in April 2025 formed wave A (minor degree) of (Y) (intermediate degree) of ((Y)) (primary degree). The present upward move represents wave B, which is correcting the decline seen in wave A.
As long as WTI trades under $72, it is anticipated that wave C will push prices lower, potentially down to $50. Currently, wave B has reached a Fibonacci resistance zone, indicating limited potential for further upward movement. Consequently, the medium-term outlook for WTI remains bearish.
Technical analyst: Sanmi Adeagbo.
WTI Elliott Wave analysis [Video]
Author
Peter Mathers
TradingLounge
Peter Mathers started actively trading in 1982. He began his career at Hoei and Shoin, a Japanese futures trading company.
