Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
HYCM
Inflation in Switzerland is the second lowest in the G20. With headline inflation at 1.6% and the core reading at 1.5%, it would be reasonable if the Swiss National Bank declared an end to its rate hiking cycle. This would also give the potential for the CHF to lose value out of the SNB meeting. The JPY also has reasons for strength as markets speculate over whether the BoJ will sit its ultra-loose monetary policy soon.
Seasonally, the pattern has been very compelling for the CHFJPY over the last 15 years. It has lost value just under 75 % of the time for an average fall of over 1.5%. Is this now the time for the seasonal pattern to repeat itself again?
Major trade risks: The major trade risks here would be if the Swiss National Bank maintains a rate-hiking stance and if the BoJ keeps on with its ultra-loose monetary policy.
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