Ming Jong Tey
Independent Analyst
8 Apr 2020 recap — S&P500 e-mini futures CME_MINI:ES1! had a strong rally up and closed near the high around 2750. The strong price action has totally ignored the bearish tone set in 7 Apr 2020, where ES was up more than more than 3% but closed down on the day.
In 2008, similar situation had happened a few times, such as on 3, 14, 17 Oct 2008. Every times after the price rejection, ES started a downswing. If we pay close attention to 17–18 Oct 2008, it is similar to ES current situation (7–8 Apr 2020) because the rejection bar was followed by a strong demand bar both in 2008 and 2020. Yet, a down swing was followed in 2008 after the strong demand bar, as shown in the chart as illustrated.
S&P500 E-mini Futures ES analog comparison from 2008
Historical analog is good for reference and keep us to anticipate potential scenarios. However, always trade according to the charts.
So far, ES does not show any emergence of supply., which is a bullish sign. Could it grind higher to stretch to around 2800?
Bias — neutral. A range bound between 2630–2750 can be expected. A break below 2600–2630 will validate the up thrust scenario. A break above 2750 should see a test of 2800.
Key levels — Resistance: 2750–2780 Support: 2700, 2600–2630.
Potential intraday setup — A short entry is preferred. Pay close attention on how the price interacts with the key levels, swing high, swing low, neckline, etc...
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