Bad meant good on Friday as weaker than expected US April jobs data helped to dampen concerns over inflation risks and higher rates. At a time when markets were becoming increasingly fearful of rising inflation risks the softer US jobs data will act as a balm on such fears. It also complicates matters ahead of bipartisan talks between President Biden and congressional leaders this week. Democrats will likely use the data to outline their case for more stimulus to boost growth, while Republicans will highlight that excessive unemployment benefits are holding back hiring.  

US Payrolls increased by 266,000 in April, well below the 1 million consensus and the unemployment rate rose to 6.1% from 6.0%, above the 5.8% consensus.  The data supports the view of most Fed officials that progress has not been "substantial" enough for them to start signaling tapering.  Unsurprisingly Markets pushed back the pricing of the first rate hike from early-2023 to May 2023 in the wake of the weaker US jobs data. The US dollar (USD) took a hit and looks likely to kick off the week on the back foot.  High yielding currencies will likely benefit the most.  

This week inflation releases will come under scrutiny, with CPI data in the US (Wed), China (Tue) and India (Wed) in focus, albeit for different reasons.  In the US, base effects will likely push inflation higher, with a sharp pick up in core CPI in particular likely.  A similar story is expected in China, but base effects will likely act in the opposite direction in India.  Other highlights this week include a likely modest decline in US retail sales (Fri), further easing in China's credit aggregates (9-15 May) and a material improvement expected to be revealed in Australia's Federal Budget (Tue).  Last but not least, central banks in Mexico and Philippines (both Thu) are expected to leave policy unchanged.

Separately, markets will digest the outcome of UK local elections, especially those in Scotland, which revealed that pro-independence parties (SNP and Scottish Greens) gained a majority in the Scottish parliament. A constitutional battle with the Conservative UK government looms though UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is showing no signs of acceding to demands for a new Scottish referendum.  There will also be focus on the aftermath of the ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline in the US, which has already pushed energy prices higher.  And finally, the much anticipated (among Krypto traders) appearance of Elon Musk on SNL hit Dodgecoin, after he called it "a hustle". 

The views expressed here are purely personal and do not represent the views or opinions of Calyon.

The information published at econometer.org and republished at FXstreet.com has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst all reasonable care is taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate, the author is not in any way responsible for the accuracy of its contents. The comments are intended to provide clients with information and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, currencies or any other financial product. The author makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. Therefore you should consider whether these products are appropriate in view of your objectives, financial situation and needs as well as considering the risks associated in dealing with those products.

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