Market expectations for Fed FOMC interest rate cuts have gyrated back and forth following a recent speech by NY Fed President Williams, one of the key decision makers within the Fed FOMC. He appeared to support a 50bps rate cut at the meeting at the end of the month, but unusually this was clarified later.  If anything, as the clarification may suggest, the bigger probability is that the Fed eases policy by 25bps in an insurance cut.

There will be no Fed speakers in the days ahead but the Fed will assess developments this week in helping to determine the magnitude of easing. Attention will continue to centre on US earnings, with more than a quarter of S&P 500 companies reporting Q2 earnings this week.   On the data front, US Q2 GDP and July durable goods orders will command most attention.  The consensus looks for a slowing in GDP growth to 1.8% q/q in Q1 from 3.1% q/q in Q1 while durable goods orders are expected to increase by 0.7% m/m.

A major central bank in action this week is the European Central Bank on Thursday. While policy easing is unlikely at this meeting, the ECB is likely to set to set the market up for an easing in deposit rates at the September meeting.  ECB President Draghi could do this by strengthening his forward guidance, but as a lot of this is priced in by the market, a dovish sounding Draghi is unlikely to weigh too much on the EUR.

In the UK this week it’s all about politics. Boris Johnson is widely expected to be announced as the new Prime Minister.  GBPUSD has clung onto the 1.25 handle, as worries about a no deal Brexit continue to impact sentiment towards the currency.  Once Johnson is sworn in he and the government could face a no confidence motion, which could gain support should it be seen as an alternative to the UK crashing out of the EU.

National elections in Japan yesterday resulted in a victory according to Japanese press for Shinzo Abe’s coalition, its sixth straight victory, with the governing LDP winning over half the 124 seats. The results were no surprise, and unlikely to have a significant market impact, but notably Abe suffered a setback by not gaining a supermajority. He therefore cannot change the country’s pacifist constitution.

In emerging markets, both Russia and Turkey are likely to cut interest rates this week, with Russia predicted to cut its key rate by 25bp and Turkey to cut by at least 200bps if not more.  Elsewhere geopolitical tensions will remain a major focus for markets, as tensions between the UK and Iran intensify.

The views expressed here are purely personal and do not represent the views or opinions of Calyon.

The information published at econometer.org and republished at FXstreet.com has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst all reasonable care is taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate, the author is not in any way responsible for the accuracy of its contents. The comments are intended to provide clients with information and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, currencies or any other financial product. The author makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. Therefore you should consider whether these products are appropriate in view of your objectives, financial situation and needs as well as considering the risks associated in dealing with those products.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD rising after upbeat German PMI data

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1100, up on the day. German manufacturing PMI surprised with 43.6 and other figures also beat expectations. The ECB minutes are next.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD stabilizing above 1.2100 ahead of the Johnson-Macron meeting

GBP/USD is trading above 1.2100, steady. After German Chancellor Merkel offered UK PM Johnson 30 days to solve the Irish Backstop problem, Johnson meets French President Macron.

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: Weaker below 106.50, focus on T-yields ahead of Powell

USD/JPY trades weaker below the 106.50 level, tracking the negative S&P 500 futures and a cautious sentiment on the Asian equities, as attention shifts from the FOMC minutes to the Fed's Powell speech for fresh direction. 

USD/JPY News

USD/CNH: Rallies, confirms falling channel breakout

Another wave of CNH selling could soon hit the market as the pair technical charts are reporting a bullish breakout. For instance, the pair has jumped 0.22% to levels above 7.08 today, confirming an upside break of the falling channel on the 4H chart.

Read more

Gold: Trapped in a symmetrical triangle

Gold is trapped in a narrowing price or a symmetrical triangle pattern, according to the 4-hour chart. The yellow metal rose to a six-year high of $1,353 per Oz on Aug. 13 and has charted lower highs and higher lows ever since.

Gold News

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures