Market expectations for Fed FOMC interest rate cuts have gyrated back and forth following a recent speech by NY Fed President Williams, one of the key decision makers within the Fed FOMC. He appeared to support a 50bps rate cut at the meeting at the end of the month, but unusually this was clarified later.  If anything, as the clarification may suggest, the bigger probability is that the Fed eases policy by 25bps in an insurance cut.

There will be no Fed speakers in the days ahead but the Fed will assess developments this week in helping to determine the magnitude of easing. Attention will continue to centre on US earnings, with more than a quarter of S&P 500 companies reporting Q2 earnings this week.   On the data front, US Q2 GDP and July durable goods orders will command most attention.  The consensus looks for a slowing in GDP growth to 1.8% q/q in Q1 from 3.1% q/q in Q1 while durable goods orders are expected to increase by 0.7% m/m.

A major central bank in action this week is the European Central Bank on Thursday. While policy easing is unlikely at this meeting, the ECB is likely to set to set the market up for an easing in deposit rates at the September meeting.  ECB President Draghi could do this by strengthening his forward guidance, but as a lot of this is priced in by the market, a dovish sounding Draghi is unlikely to weigh too much on the EUR.

In the UK this week it’s all about politics. Boris Johnson is widely expected to be announced as the new Prime Minister.  GBPUSD has clung onto the 1.25 handle, as worries about a no deal Brexit continue to impact sentiment towards the currency.  Once Johnson is sworn in he and the government could face a no confidence motion, which could gain support should it be seen as an alternative to the UK crashing out of the EU.

National elections in Japan yesterday resulted in a victory according to Japanese press for Shinzo Abe’s coalition, its sixth straight victory, with the governing LDP winning over half the 124 seats. The results were no surprise, and unlikely to have a significant market impact, but notably Abe suffered a setback by not gaining a supermajority. He therefore cannot change the country’s pacifist constitution.

In emerging markets, both Russia and Turkey are likely to cut interest rates this week, with Russia predicted to cut its key rate by 25bp and Turkey to cut by at least 200bps if not more.  Elsewhere geopolitical tensions will remain a major focus for markets, as tensions between the UK and Iran intensify.

The views expressed here are purely personal and do not represent the views or opinions of Calyon.

The information published at econometer.org and republished at FXstreet.com has been prepared on the basis of publicly available information and other sources believed to be reliable. Whilst all reasonable care is taken to ensure that the facts stated are accurate, the author is not in any way responsible for the accuracy of its contents. The comments are intended to provide clients with information and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, currencies or any other financial product. The author makes no recommendations as to the merits of any financial product referred to in this website, emails or its related websites and the information contained does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation and needs. Therefore you should consider whether these products are appropriate in view of your objectives, financial situation and needs as well as considering the risks associated in dealing with those products.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD retreats after strong NFP, weak German data

EUR/USD is trading below   1.11 after US Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations with 266K and mixed wage growth. Earlier, weak German data weighed on the euro. Updates on trade are awaited.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD shrugs off strong NFP, focuses on UK elections

GBP/USD is trading below 1.3150 but off the post-NFP lows. The US gained more jobs than expected. The Conservatives remain in the lead ahead of the debate between PM Johnson and Labour leader Corbyn.

GBP/USD News

US recession? Not so fast, a calm look at the economy and currencies ahead of the NFP

Recent US economic indicators have been downbeat, but they include silver linings and are backed by robust consumption. Valeria Bednarik, Joseph Trevisani, and Yohay Elam...

Read more

Gold drops to fresh multi-day lows on upbeat NFP report

Gold faded an intraday bullish spike to the $1480 area and tumbled to fresh multi-day lows, around the $1465 region in reaction to upbeat US monthly jobs report.

Gold News

USD/JPY: bearish ahead of US employment figures

Japanese data missed the market’s expectations, triggering fresh concerns about the economy. Focus on US employment figures, market players anticipate dismal numbers. USD/JPY is technically bearish could break below the 108.00 level.

USD/JPY News

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures