Weekly waves: EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Bitcoin

EUR/USD bullish ABC zigzag pattern

The EUR/USD completed a wave 3 (gray) of a larger downtrend. Now price action is preparing for a larger bullish correction:

1. The EUR/USD bullish price swing is unfolding in a 5 wave pattern (blue).

2. The current wave is probably a wave 5 (blue) of a larger wave A (pink).

3. The first target is the larger 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the wave 4 (gray).

4. A bearish bounce (orange arrows) could take place at the resistance level.

5. A bearish correction should create an ABC (blue) pattern in wave B (pink).

6. The bearish swing should not break the bottom otherwise the ABC (pink) zigzag becomes invalidated.

7. A bullish wave C (pink) could complete wave 4 (gray) or a wave W of 4.

BTC/USD finding support and a bullish bounce

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) failed to break the support and lows for several days. Price action seems to be moving north now:

1. The BTC/USD was in a strong downtrend. 

2. The main question is: has the downtrend completed a wave 5 (pink) of wave a (gray) or will there be one more low remaining?

3. The resistance levels are the critical resistance zone for that decision.

4. A bullish breakout (green arrow) could confirm a larger 123 (blue) pattern within an ABC (pink).

5. A bearish bounce (orange arrow) could indicate an ABC (blue) pattern within a WXY (pink).

6. Eventually price action is expected to complete an ABC (gray) pattern.

USD/JPY 

The USD/JPY is building a bearish correction in a solid uptrend:

1. The uptrend seems to have completed a wave 3 (pink) pattern.

2. The bearish correction is choppy and shallow, as usual for a wave 4 (pink).

3. The wave 4 (pink) remains valid as long as price action does not correct below the 50% Fib or deeper.

4. A complex correction via a WXY (blue) pattern could unfold in wave 4 (pink).

5. A bullish bounce is expected at the 38.2% Fibonacci level if price action manages to reach it. 

6. Price action needs a clear higher low plus bounce before the wave 4 (pink) could be considered completed.

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The analysis has been done with the indicators and template from the SWAT method simple wave analysis and trading. For more daily technical and wave analysis and updates, sign-up to our newsletter