Brian Twomey
Brian's Investment
Best description to overall currency market prices last week was balanced, settled, centered, at equilibrium. The same description applies this week to currency prices and it means no dramatic moves are expected and no significant breaks to main averages. Range trading is again the order for the week.
GBP pairs represent slight outliers to balance as GBP/USD again sits on massive supports at 1.2800's while all GBP cross pair prices are low, oversold and expected to rise significantly this week. Yet any GBP rises are trades within respective ranges.
GBP/NZD offers the best longs along with its counterpart EUR/NZD. GBP/NZD will outperform EUR/NZD. GBP/NZD is truly an outlier currency pair due to its wide and expansive ranges. It should trade easily at 1.9400's and 1.9500's but miniscule ranges to GBP/USD are holding GBP/NZD to trade to its full potential.
GBP/AUD will outperform its counterpart EUR/AUD.
For EUR/AUD will range trade against its main counterpart AUD/USD. No such price exists to EUR/AUD above 1.6400's. GBP/AUD outperformance is explained by expansion of weekly ranges over the past 3 weeks. GBP/AUD requires a break of many averages at 1.8100's to move higher.
GBP/CAD ranges this week went dead again and no big moves expected. GBP/CAD ranges expand and contract based on the GBP/USD and USD/CAD relationship. GBP/USD at 1.2900's and USD/CAD at 1.3100's warns to a big move ahead and only then will the big trade for GBP/CAD exist. EUR/CAD is the better trade.
GBP/CHF price longer term is low and deeply oversold. It must and will eventually trade to 1.1900's and 1.2000's easily. This week however, GBP/CHF price lacks movement ability and will trade in tiny ranges. This means its performing its vital function to act as support to GBP/USD and GBP/JPY to allow both to move higher.
The message from GBP/CHF this week is all CHF pairs as Other Pair/CHF are all overbought. NZD/CHF offers the best and easiest trade for shorts while AUD/CHF and GBP/CHF offers low yet decent ranges. The weekly trades aren't dead issues but better trade choices exist.
USD/CAD and CAD/JPY are again mis positioned this week. CAD/JPY is a low range currency pair and ,its matched by a good and fairly normal USD/CAD range. Its CAD/JPY mis positioned against USD/CAD.
Most interesting trades this week are JPY cross pairs against Non USD counterparts such as GBP/USD Vs GBP/JPY, AUD/USD Vs AUD/JPY, NZD/USD Vs NZD/JPY and EUR/USD Vs EUR/JPY.
Best combo trade is found in long GBP/USD and GBP/JPY as GBP/USD will be the leader this week to GBP/JPY because its sits on solid supports.
Correlations informs to the JPY cross pair vs Non USD alignments as EUR/USD Vs EUR/JPY run +98%, AUD/USD Vs AUD/JPY run +99%, EUR/JPY Vs AUD/JPY run +98%, This means non USD will run together with JPY cross pairs.
No need ever to run Correlations to GBP/USD Vs GBP/JPY as Correlations rarely if ever break. The GBP/USD Vs GBP/JPY relationship was solidified as one dating to the 1930's when the BOJ pegged GBP/JPY to Gold.
USD/JPY price is low and oversold from 106.00's to 108.00's. For USD/JPY must break 105.81 to move higher to target 106.00's and 107.00's. Massive resistance exists at 108.00's.
EUR/USD is a range trade and balanced this week. Break of 1.600's changes trend to a lower EUR/USD. EUR contains the opposite line up as GBP pairs. EUR/JPY sits just above a big break point and no threat to EUR/USD breaking 1.1600's. For GBPUSD sits on big break point to move lower while GBP/JPY price is low and oversold.
NZD/USD price sits just above solid supports at 0.6600's and 0.6500's. The averages at supports are many and massive. Only a break at 0.6500's changes NZD/USD direction to short. NZD/JPY however trades just above massive support. No chance for NZD/USD to break 0.6500's and this allows a combo trade to NZD/USD and NZD/JPY.
If NZD/USD breaks its 5 year average at 0.6809 then much higher for all non USD pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD.
AUD/USD contains no chance to break low 0.7100's this week to change its trend to a lower AUD and AUD/JPY like its counterparts EUR/JPY and NZD/JPY , trades just above supports.
Weekly Trades AUD/USD Vs AUD/JPY
AUD/USD
Short 0.7336 and 0.7350 to target 0.7193.
Long 0.7193 to target 0.7279.
AUD/JPY
Long 75.94 and 76.08 to target 78.11
Short 78.11 to target 76.18
AUD/JPY supports located at 75.46.
As a new week begins, we trade 18 currency pairs continuously from Sunday to Friday or from target to target.
Trading currencies and other financial instruments carries a degree of loss and possible loss of entire investments. Please managed your own risks, stop loss, and margins requirements.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades with negative bias, holds above 1.0700 as traders await US PCE Price Index
EUR/USD edges lower during the Asian session on Friday and moves away from a two-week high, around the 1.0740 area touched the previous day. Spot prices trade around the 1.0725-1.0720 region and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar price dynamics ahead of the crucial US data.
USD/JPY jumps above 156.00 on BoJ's steady policy
USD/JPY has come under intense buying pressure, surging past 156.00 after the Bank of Japan kept the key rate unchanged but tweaked its policy statement. The BoJ maintained its fiscal year 2024 and 2025 core inflation forecasts, disappointing the Japanese Yen buyers.
Gold price flatlines as traders look to US PCE Price Index for some meaningful impetus
Gold price lacks any firm intraday direction and is influenced by a combination of diverging forces. The weaker US GDP print and a rise in US inflation benefit the metal amid subdued USD demand. Hawkish Fed expectations cap the upside as traders await the release of the US PCE Price Index.
Sei Price Prediction: SEI is in the zone of interest after a 10% leap
Sei price has been in recovery mode for almost ten days now, following a fall of almost 65% beginning in mid-March. While the SEI bulls continue to show strength, the uptrend could prove premature as massive bearish sentiment hovers above the altcoin’s price.
US core PCE inflation set to signal firm price pressures as markets delay Federal Reserve rate cut bets
The core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is seen as the more influential measure of inflation in terms of Fed positioning. The index is forecast to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in March, matching February’s increase.