Weekly Technical Outlook on Major - EUR/USD

    WEEKLY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 14 Jan 2019 00:07GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Up

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
1.1485

55 HR EMA
1.1496

Trend Hourly Chart
Down

Hourly Indicators
Falling

13 HR RSI
33

14 HR DMI
-ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias

Resistance
1.1540 - Last Fri's high
1.1515 - Fri's European morning low (now res)
1.1487 - Reaction high fm 1.1458

Support
1.1458 - Last Fri's low
1.1422 - Last week's low (Tue)
1.1393 - Hourly chart

. EUR/USD - 1.1464... Although euro penetrated prev. Jan's 1.1497 high last week to an 11-week peak of 1.1570 (Thur), broad-based prfit taking together with Fed J. Powell's mildly hawkish comments knocked price to as low as 1.1458 Fri.

. Looking at the bigger picture, despite euro's resumption of LT uptrend fm 2017 near 14-year bottom of 1.0341 to a fresh 3-year peak of 1.2555 in mid- Feb, subsequent selloff to 1.1301 in Aug confirms said major rise has formed a top there. Although euro ratcheted lower to a 16-month trough at 1.1216 in mid- Nov, the rally to 1.1472 later suggests temporary low has been made. Last week's break abv 1.1500 to 1.1570 suggests consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger gain twd 1.1621, however, reckon 1.1727 (38.2% r of 1.2555-1.2116) would cap upside. On the downside, a daily close below 1.1422 signals correction fm 1.1216 has possibly ended n risks weakness twd 1.1310, break, 1.1216 in Feb.

. Today, euro's decline to 1.1458 on Fri confirms recent upmove has made a temp. top last week at 1.1570 n downside bias remains for weakness twd 1.1393 (sup as well as 50% r of 1.1216-1.1570), o/sold readings on hourly oscillators should keep price abv 1.1346. Only a move abv 1.1540 signals pullback is over.