USD/JPY - 127.92.. Despite swinging sideways initially, price tumbled in tandem with U.S. yields as global stock market rout triggered active safe-haven yen buying, dlr fell fm 129.77 (Tue) to 127.04 Thur b4 rebounding to 128.29 Fri.

On the bigger picture, dlr's fall fm 118.66 (Dec 2016) to 2019 low at 104. 46 (Sep) confirms early uptrend fm 2016 29-month bottom at 99.00 has hit a top. Despite falling to a 3-1/2 year 101.19 bottom in Mar 2020 on risk-off trades due to COVID-19 pandemic, dlr's rally to 111.71 the same month signals correction over. Despite dlr's erratic fall to 102.60 (Jan 2021), subsequent rise to 116.65 at the start of Jul, then break of 2020 top at 112.22 to 116.34 in Jan signals LT rise fm 2020 3-1/2 year 101.19 low remains in force n gain to a fresh 20-year peak of 131.34 in May would head to 132.42 in Jun/Jul. Last week's fall to 127. 04 would bring consolidation n only weekly close below 126.96 risks 125.10.

Today, dlr's rebound fm Thur's 3-week trough of 127.04 to 128.29 on Fri suggests recent fall fm 131.34 has made a temp. low n consolidation with upside bias is seen, a daily close abv 128.29 would be 1st signal 1st leg of correction fm 131.34 over n head twd 129.19 (50% r). Only below 127.50/54 may risk 127.04.

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AceTrader Team

AceTrader

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