USD/JPY - 103.87.. Despite climbing to a 4-week high of 104.39 initially last week (Mon), price fell on broad-based usd's weakness to 103.53 b4 recovering to 103.91 on Fri as usd regained traction in NY session.

On the bigger picture, dlr's fall fm 118.66 (Dec 2016) to 2019 low at 104.46 (Sep) confirms early uptrend fm 2016 29-month bottom at 99.00 has hit a top there. Despite hitting a 3-1/2 year bottom of 101.19 in Mar on risk-off trades due to COVID-19 pandemic, dlr's brief but strg rise to 111.71 signals temp. low has been seen. Having said that, dlr's erratic fall to 103.18 in Nov , then 102.60 last week indicates correction has ended n price is en route twd 101.19 later this month. On the upside, only a daily close abv 104.75 prolongs choppy sideways swings, then risk is seen for gain to 105.67 but only a break there is needed to abort bearishness on dlr n yield upmove to 106.25/35.

Today, dlr's rebound fm 103.62 to 103.91 on Fri suggests price would continue to 'gyrate' inside recent 104.39-103.53, reckon 104.39 would cap intra- day rise n yield decline, below 103.53 would bring stronger correction to 103.35 but 103.22 (61.8% r fm 102.60) may hold. Only abv 104.39 extends gain to 104.75.

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AceTrader Team

AceTrader

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