Weekly Market Brief (Indices)

INDICES

AUSTRALASIA

ASX – 6176 ( +3 or +0.05% )

The ASX has once again remained practically unchanged over the past week; and as such our levels remain unchanged.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 14:30 – RBA Interest Rate Announcement
Thu 11:30 – AUD Trade Balance

For a continued move higher we must now see the ASX hold above 6140 followed by a retest of 6206. Should this occur we will look for a move into 6276, and if momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 6345 and 6374.

If the ASX cannot hold above 6140, we will look for a move back down to 6085 before a pause. A strong break and close below this level however could see the ASX retest 6040, and if downside momentum is very strong we could see a move down to 6002.

EUROPE

DAX – 12225 ( -183 or -1.47% )

The DAX sold off aggressively last week off a big reversal on Friday; falling right into our key level at 12198.

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Thu 17:30 – German Construction PMI
Fri 16:00 – German Factory Orders

For a continued move to the upside we must now see the DAX close above 12384 followed by a move into 12566. A break of this level could then result into a quick move into 12640; followed by continuation into 12714. If momentum to the upside is very strong we cannot rule out a move to 12830.

If the DAX fails to close and hold above 12384, we expect to see a move back down into 12198 before a pause. A break below this level however means we may see more selling into 12115; and if momentum is very strong to the downside we may see a sharp move into 12044.

US

SP500 – 2916 ( -10 or -0.34% )

The US was slightly down last week and whilst we did see buyers step back into this market off the key 2902 level, the week was all about 2928. 

VOLATILITY ALERTS:
Tue 00:00 – ISM Manufacturing
Wed 02:00 – FED Chairman Powell Speaks
Thu 00:00 – ISM Non-Manufacturing
Fri 00:00 – Durable Goods Orders
Fri 22:30 – Trade Balance
Fri 22:30 – Non-Farm Payrolls – LIVE TV

For a move higher we would like to see the S&P close above 2928. Should this occur we will look for a move into 2946 which may see the bulls push this market higher into 2950 – 2957. If momentum is strong we cannot rule out a move to 2977.

If we cannot close above 2928, we will look for a move back down to 2908. A break below this level may result in another quick move down into 2870; and if momentum to the downside is very strong we cannot rule out a move into 2840.