Weekly economic commentary: Potpourri of global economic events and data

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

United States: The song remains the same

Incoming economic data continue to illuminate pockets of stress in the U.S. economy. The unwinding of strikes and hurricane effects lifted nonfarm payrolls by 227K in November; however, job gains remain highly concentrated by industry. Openings also continue to trend lower through the month volatility. Meanwhile, tariff-related stress is beginning to form in both the manufacturing and services sectors.
Next week: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (Tue.), CPI (Wed.), Federal Budget Balance (Wed.)

International: Potpourri of global economic events and data

Even though Thanksgiving has passed, market participants had their plates full this week with international political developments, economic events and data releases. Political uncertainty took hold amid headline-making developments in South Korea and France, while we also gained further insight into economic conditions in a variety of advanced and emerging economies.
Next week: Bank of Canada (Wed.), Brazilian Central Bank (Wed.), European Central Bank (Thu.)

Interest rate watch: Hawk or dove, data-dependency name of the game

The Fed's blackout period—or two-week stretch ahead of its meeting where Fed officials do not make public policy comments—begins this Saturday. Recent comments suggest members believe the path for policy has grown more uncertain, though there remains broad support for a gradual data-dependent reduction in rates.

Topic of the week: Bad day for Barnier

On Wednesday, the French government collapsed after its National Assembly voted to oust Prime Minister Michel Barnier. President Macron now faces the difficult decision of appointing

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Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.