Weekly economic commentary: The search for clues continues

Summary

United States: The search for clues continues

• Fed watchers are still on the lookout for clues on the size of the well-telegraphed September rate cut. This week's economic indicator lineup, which broadly beat expectations and reaffirmed a soft landing, provides limited insight. Next Friday's employment report will go a long way toward determining the actions taken by the FOMC at next month's meeting.

• Next week: ISM Manufacturing & Services (Tue. & Thu.), Employment (Fri.)

International: Eyes on global monetary policy decisions ahead as summer comes to a close

• It was a relatively light week for global economic data releases. Eurozone headline inflation slowed, while services price pressures remained persistent in August; we maintain our view for gradual European Central Bank rate cuts. A slight upside surprise in Australia inflation in July should keep RBA policymakers on hold until next year, in our view. Both Canada and Sweden released GDP reports that we view as consistent with a steady pace of rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and Riksbank through the end of 2024.

• Next week: China PMIs (Sat.), Bank of Canada Rate Decision (Wed.), Japan Labor Cash Earnings (Thu.)

Topic of the week: That chill in the air means college football is upon us

• Summer is winding down and fall is just around the corner. Before the leaves change color, temperatures dip and pumpkin spice finds its way into everything, what better way to mark the transition into autumn than to dive deep into the college football season and the regional economies the top teams call home?

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