Global central banks holding steady for now

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

Summary

United States: Steady, as she goes

This week's economic data largely reinforced existing economic growth patterns. Consumer momentum remains largely intact, inflation continues to inch back down, albeit at a slower pace, and rate-sensitive sectors stayed in a holding pattern.
Next week: ISM Indices (Mon. & Wed.), Trade Balance (Thu.), Employment (Fri.)

International: Global central banks holding steady for now

This week saw the announcement of monetary policy decisions from both G10 and emerging market economies. Sweden’s Riksbank held its policy rate steady at 4.00% and opened the door for either a May or June rate cut. We maintain our call for an initial June cut for now. The South Africa Reserve Bank held its policy rate steady at 8.25% and offered hawkish-leaning guidance.
Next week: China PMIs (Sun.), Japan Tankan Survey (Mon.), Eurozone CPI (Wed.)

Interest rate watch: Dancing with the stars: The first of many ticks higher in the longer-run median dot

Last week, the median “longer-run” dot moved higher in the FOMC’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The increase in the median dot was small (just 6 bps), but the uptick in the median marks the first time it has been above 2.5% since March 2019. We expect the longer-run dot to continue to cautiously drift higher in coming SEP meetings.

Topic of the week: Economic costs of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse

The Francis Scott Key Bridge collapsed early Tuesday morning when a cargo ship leaving the Port of Baltimore collided with one of the bridge's support pillars. How important is the Port of Baltimore to U.S. goods trade?

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Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

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