Weekly economic and financial commentary

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

United States: Labor market continues to exude resilience

Coming into the week, financial markets were looking for validation that January's unexpected strength was not a fluke and that the downward slide in economic momentum experienced late last year had stabilized. On balance, this week's indicators supported that notion.
Next week: CPI (Tue), Retail Sales (Wed), Industrial Production (Fri)

International: Central banks front and center this week

Obviously, Fed Chair Powell's two-day testimony caught market participants' attention the most; however, the Bank of Canada (BoC) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) also met this week as well. While neither institution caught markets off guard with any surprise decisions or communications, a Fed shifting slightly more hawkish combined with stress in the U.S. banking system could complicate future monetary policy decisions going forward.
Next week: India CPI (Mon), Argentina CPI (Tue), European Central Bank (Thu)

Credit market insights: 2023 started off with some signs of life, beige book reports

Overall economic activity modestly expanded in six districts, while little or no growth was reported in the other six districts. The labor market remains tight, while inflation is still a concern. Regional variation in prices as well as labor supply and demand contribute to a mixed but generally positive picture.

Topic of the week: Party of one

There has been a gradual shift in household structure taking place in the United States. Now, more than half of women are single. The change is rippling across the economy and leaving a mark on the labor market, wealth and spending.

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Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.