Weekly Column: The Week Beginning October

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President Donald Trump said Friday that he does not want the aid deal to bail out Democratic states. The major averages fell to their session lows on those remarks… Several market experts and economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, think it is imperative that lawmakers reach a deal on another stimulus package. – Fred Imbert, “Dow Falls on Concern About Stimulus as Wall Street Heads for Weekly Loss,” www.cnbc.com, Oct 23, 2020.

The latest good news was Thursday’s report that continuing jobless claims for the week of Oct 10 declined by nearly one million, and by 3.6 million in the last three weeks. Employers are also raising wages. Third quarter median weekly earnings increased 8.2% year-over-year and 9.2% for the bottom 25% of workers. – “Red and Blue States of Recovery,” Wall Street Journal Opinion page, October 23, 2020.

It is the middle of the Trickster’s retrograde cycle. And this time, Mercury has a companion, for during this same period, Mars is also retrograde (September 9-November 14). What do we know about Mercury and Mars in retrograde? Not much. There is not a high correlation to a trend when either of these lords is retrograde, except when Mars ends its retrograde motion (November 13-14). Market reversals happen then. But in between the start and end of the retrograde motion of either of these two planets, financial markets are more apt to just tread water, going back and forth every 1-4 days. Yes, there have been exceptions to this rule, but in well over half of the historical cases studied in U.S. stock indices, the rule has been …. the rule. You may ask, why? Possibly because Mercury rules decisions and Mars rules actions, and when they are retrograde, making clear-headed decisions is a chore, and taking decisive, well-thought-out action is an even greater chore. And so it was last week. Will there be another stimulus package or not? Will there be a vaccine by the end of the year or not? Are we turning the corner on COVID-19 or not? Is Google a monopoly or not? There are so many questions, so few clear answers.

Most world stock indices declined last week, but not seriously enough to confirm a new bearish trend, except perhaps in Europe so far. What stands out is that most indices made new cycle highs or secondary highs October 9-13 as Mercury turned retrograde and Mars reached the midpoint of its retrograde motion, making a T-square with the Sun in Libra and the Capricorn stellium (Saturn, Pluto, and Jupiter). We expected a turn then. But the reversal has not been nearly as severe as it was when Mars conjoined the Capricorn stellium in late March. However, until equities can take out those highs of the last two weeks, the decline may not be over. In the meantime, expect conflicting narratives from the political and economic arena. One side says we are doing very well and the other says we are hurting badly. Reality continues to be negotiable, and the truth continues to be elusive. That’s the way the Trickster plays it.

In Europe, stocks indices fared poorly last week. The Netherlands AEX fell to a new three-week low, the German DAX to a 4-week low. But it was worse in Switzerland and the UK, where the SMI dropped to its lowest level in five months and the London FTSE its lowest mark in 6 months.

Asia and the Pacific Rim were a mixed bag, but much more positive than Europe. The Australian ASX soared to its highest level since the pandemic crisis of last March. The Japanese Nikkei and Indian NIFTY indices rallied to test their highest marks since the pandemic crash. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong rallied to a new monthly high. In China, the Shanghai Composite made a secondary high last Monday but then fell to a two-week low by Friday.

The DJIA and NASDAQ indices of the U.S. were mostly down last week, with two-week lows being recorded on Thursday, October 22.

The real stars of last week were Bitcoin and the grain markets, which bucked the stagnancy of Mercury retrograde observed in the stock and precious metals markets. Bitcoin soared above 13,000 for the first time since June 2019. Corn exploded to 420 for the first time in over a year. But Soybeans and Wheat were more impressive. Soybeans soared to their highest price in over 4 years, while Wheat to its highest price since December 2014. It appears inflation is on the way, as indicated also by the falling T-Notes market (long-term rates are going up, just as described via the Saturn/Pluto cycle in the Forecast 2020 Book). We may not see rates as low in our lifetime as we witnessed this past summer. But don’t panic. They aren’t likely to accelerate to a level of financial intolerance for a couple of more years either. 

Short-term geocosmics and longer-term thoughts

You wouldn’t be saying much either if you were going into the final presidential sprint carrying as much baggage as the former vice-president – a Democratic party gone too far left to talk about, the Hunter Biden darkness… At its finish, this presidential election is of a piece with everything else in 2020 – the desire that some things just go away. So, which is it? Donald Trump or the Democratic Party?– Daniel Henninger, “Trump, Biden, Hunter, Chaos,” Wall Street Journal, October 22, 2020.

“It’s not about his family and my family. It’s about your family, and your family is hurting badly.” – Joe Biden, October 22, 2020, in the debate with President Donald Trump.

The latest polls from Real Clear Politics show Biden leading Trump by 7.9% down from 8.9% last week and over 10% the week before. And the Rasmussen poll that I watch most closely shows Biden’s lead has shrunk from 12% two weeks ago to 3% as of Wednesday, October 21. In next week’s column, I will review the history of long-term planetary signatures and the outcome of elections as it pertains to 2020.

In the meantime, there are a couple of important geocosmic periods coming up shortly that correlate with historical market activity, and perhaps collective psychology. On Tuesday, October 27, Mercury will retrograde back into Libra through December 1. That’s a fine aspect for trying to work out conflicts. However, it will be in a square aspect twice to Saturn, November 1, and 6, as it turns direct. That is not such a favorable aspect for agreements and resolving conflicts. It can indicate a delay in reaching a decision, a count, and this is right in the middle of the U.S. election.

Venus will also enter Libra on the same day as Mercury, October 27. It will remain there through November 21. This is also a fine combination for coming to agreements, but oftentimes it can also be indecisive in its wish to please all parties. More importantly to us, it also correlates with major reversals in the Silver market.

The month of October ends with a powerful full Moon conjunct Uranus on October 31. Things change abruptly. People change their minds, and it creates an unexpected disturbance. It could coincide with a brief but sharp bout of collective hysteria, sort of like an earthquake (figuratively or literally).

However, the major time band to prepare for next is the one that occurs November 9-19, when two powerful geocosmic forces unfold. First, the transit of Venus will form an opposition to Mars and square to the Capricorn stellium (Pluto, Jupiter, and Saturn). This is known as a cardinal T-square and affects all things financial, especially currencies, but grain markets too. Second, Jupiter will make its third and final conjunction with Pluto on November 12, and Mars will turn direct on November 13-14. These are two of the most powerful Level 1 geocosmic signatures correlating with primary cycles in U.S stocks, as reported in studies reported in The Ultimate Book on Stock Market Timing, Volume 3: Geocosmic Correlations to Trading Cycles.

In closing, bear in mind that we are now in the season of Scorpio, a time when matters tend to get intense and financial markets can get easily roiled. But it is also a period of secrets and discoveries, especially for those who love to do research. If there is something you want to know, now is the time to dig deeply and find it. But be careful. You may also discover some things you did not want to know or weren’t meant to know about. Think of this as “the season of the witch,” or the discovery of Pandora’s Box – or Hunter Biden’s hard drive, or Donald Trump’s adventure in the dressing room of an upscale clothier in New York City a few years ago with a well-known female writer. If the lid isn’t put back on quickly, before the full Moon next week, these allegations could get nasty (nastier). There is so much more beneath the surface likely to be revealed between now and the election. Scorpio’s season has just begun.