Weekly column: Silver’s bubble peak and the search for fundamental value

Review

A bubble occurs when asset prices divorce from fundamental value and emotion drives price (meaning the asset ceases to be an asset). Bursting a bubble locks in a wealth transfer from bubble buyers to bubble sellers. Bubbles generate a positive wealth effect for the bubble sellers, incentivizing them to spend their profits in the real economy. Bubble buyers’ losses when a bubble bursts are a negative wealth effect.

— Dr. Paul Donovan, “Bubbles and Wealth,” UBS Weekly Blog, www.ubs.com/cio, January 16, 2026.

Donald Trump, age 79, is a man in a hurry. Our Telegram column examines the sudden change in a president who has snatched Nicolás Maduro; is threatening Iran, Cuba, and Mexico; and even says he wants to take Greenland “the hard way” if necessary. He is likely to find that American military power is not a magic wand he can wave endlessly without negative consequences.

— Roger McShane, “The Economist Today,” The Economist, January 14, 2026.

Canada and China have struck an initial trade deal that will slash tariffs on electric vehicles and canola, as both nations promised to tear down trade barriers while forging new strategic ties.

— Maria Cheng, “Canada, China Slash Tariffs in Reset of Ties,” Reuters, January 16, 2026.

I have a lot to say this week.

Global stock markets have held up well in this New Year in spite of the rash of rapid and unilateral geopolitical actions and statements initiated by the President of the United States. The president’s chart finds transiting Uranus conjunct his MC, square to his Mars/Ascendant in fire sign Leo. He is indeed a “man in a hurry.” Those who study astrology know very well what can happen when one who is in a hurry is under a transiting Uranus square Mars/Ascendant in a fire sign. This is a classic accident-or mistake-prone aspect that requires great self-restraint over one’s impulses and primal drives in order to navigate successfully. Just as quickly as such decisions are made and dramatic actions are taken, so too can the reactions or consequences of those decisions follow. Already, Canada and China have just forged a new trade deal.

Yet, global stock markets remain bullish. In Asia and the Pacific Rim, the Japanese Nikkei index soared to another new ATH on January 14, while China’s SSE Index exploded to a crest on the same day to its highest mark since July 2015. The Hang Seng of Hong Kong was also on fire, rising to its highest level since summer 2021. India’s Nifty made a new ATH on January 5, but slumped to a corrective low last Monday, January 12. The Australian ASX index ended the week at its highest level following a primary cycle low on November 21, but still well off its ATH of October 21.

In Europe, it was bullish all across the board last week. Investors found healthy profits investing in the stock indices of the Netherlands, Germany, the UK, and Switzerland. All made new all-time highs (ATHs).

It was a little more nuanced in the Americas. The S&P 500 made a new ATH on January 13. The DJIA followed on January 14. Brazil’s Bovespa peaked on January 15. But the NASDAQ futures still remain 350 points below their ATH of October 30 after forming a weekly high on January 13. It’s still a case of intermarket bearish divergence in the U.S., and now the American markets are in the midst of a powerful three-star geocosmic critical reversal date (January 16-19, +/- 1 week). Caution may be warranted.

Once again, headlines were dominated by the incredible bull run (aka “bubble”) happening in Silver, which soared to a new ATH of 93.56 on January 14, the same day we issued a special alert to all MMA subscribers calling for at least a temporary high in this price range. If you wish for a copy of this update on Silver, just subscribe to a trial issue of the MMA Cycles Report ($35), and you will get both the last monthly report and last week’s special update on Silver. Gold made a modest ATH on January 14 at 4650 but lacked the explosive excitement of Silver.

Elsewhere, Bitcoin and Ethereum continued corrective rallies after their recent plunge on November 21. Bitcoin reached a high of 97,866 on January 14 and then started pulling back. There is little about this rally that leads us to think Bitcoin has begun another new bull run – yet. Another market of interest is the U.S. 10-Year T-Notes, which just fell to their lowest level since August 22, 2025. This is right in line with MMA’s Options expert Derek Panaia’s put option strategy issued at a major cycle crest in mid-December.

Short-term geocosmics

This year won’t be like most years. President Trump is taking unprecedented steps to run the economy hot, and there is an excellent chance he’ll succeed. Washington has three big levers that affect growth: fiscal policy (taxes and spending), monetary policy (interest rates), and credit policy (the ease of borrowing). Historically, they were not coordinated. This year, all three are dialed toward stimulus, reflecting a single-minded focus by Trump and congressional Republicans on faster economic growth. They hope that will deliver victory in the November midterm elections. In the process, they are compromising other goals: taming debt, Fed independence, and long-term financial stability. The consequences of that come later.

— Greg Ip, “Trump Wants to Run the Economy Hot. There’s a Good Chance He’ll Succeed.” The Wall Street Journal, January 14, 2026.

I could write an entire column on news agencies and opinion writers’ quotes regarding the onslaught of the unexpected and dramatic events of the past two weeks. However, I am also aware that readers would like to hear my take from the cosmic angle as to what is happening and where this might lead. I think this is going to lead to some very large price swings in global stock markets over the next few weeks.

I well remember January of last year when a similar flood of stunning executive decisions was made right after President Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025. By early April 4, 2025, two of the steepest daily declines in the history of the DJIA took place as Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs and bold new economic policies. The stock markets hemorrhaged, so he backed off, and the bull market resumed.

However, I think it is of interest to note that nine of the 10 steepest down days in the DJIA have happened under the leadership of Donald Trump. In addition, the first two 1000-point daily declines in the DJIA’s history (which are no longer part of the top-ten down days) happened on February 5 and 8, 2018. There is something about the first 100 days of the year that seems particularly excitable to President Trump and coincides with sudden and steep stock market declines.

We are in such a time band now where sudden sell-offs and possibly massive rallies could follow, or vice versa. The Sun has just conjoined with Mars, with both in opposition to Jupiter, January 8-10. Both have strong correlations to major reversals in the DJIA, usually from crests that occur within three weeks. The DJIA is making new highs in this time band. So is the S&P 500. The NASDAQ has not yet, creating an ongoing case of intermarket bearish divergence.

Perhaps the market is holding up under the Sun/Venus/Mars stellium as it forms a favorable trine to Uranus, January 15-17. But those same planets will now contact Pluto, January 19-27, which has a very different theme that may correspond to economic or trade retaliation by other nations against the recent moves by the U.S. government. An example was seen in today’s announcement of Canada entering into new trade agreements with China, likely to replace trade activities currently conducted with the U.S.

There may be additional retaliatory measures taken by other nations in the next two weeks. Remember that Pluto rules the 4-Ds: debt, deficits, downgrades, and defaults. The 4D’s could be activated by actions initiated by other nations or credit agencies. But Pluto also pertains to threats caused by nature or human activity. If by nature, it could affect the price of food and crops, something that also tends to correspond with Saturn-Neptune conjunctions within a year. If by human activity—well, just look at what is happening in Iran now as that regime brutally cracks down on protestors.

Astrologically, there is a strong possibility that the U.S., under its Commander in Chief, could follow up on its threat to initiate another bold strike on Iran (as it hinted at recently), and as outlined in Forecast 2026 on page 85. Iran has a Mars/Neptune mutable square at 20-25° Sagittarius and Pisces. The U.S. also has a Mars/Neptune mutable square at 19-22° Gemini-Virgo, making a grand square to the Iran square of the same planets. Donald Trump has his natal Sun-Uranus conjunction there too, opposite his Moon (born under a lunar eclipse) at 17-23° Gemini-Sagittarius, touching off the grand mutable square linking all three charts. And in the progressed U.S. chart of July 2 that I favor, the nation is undergoing a progressed New Moon at 19° Pisces on its 250th birthdate this year, also activating this huge mutable grand square (involving Mars, the planet of conflict and war) from spring through September 2026.

And then there is the epic battle looming between the United States government (White House, Donald Trump) and the nation’s central bank.

Longer-term thoughts

“On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June…. But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration’s threats and ongoing pressure…. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President. This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”

— Jerome H. Powell, Chair, Federal Reserve, “Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell,” https://www.federalreserve.gov., January 11, 2026.

… a “private memo” (sent) from central banks to governments. It arrives as Jerome (“Jay”) Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, faces charges from the Trump administration. “Jay’s fight has shown us how bad things could get for us if you keep breathing down our necks,” the memo reads. “This episode should remind you how bad things will get for you, if you don’t back off.”

— Roger McShane, “The Economist Today,” The Economist, January 14, 2026.

My own morality is the only thing that can stop me from world dominance: I don’t need international law…. I am not looking to hurt people.

— Meridith Kile, www.People.com, January 9, 2026.

This is one battle that will likely not end well for world stock and/or Treasury markets at some point soon. On the positive side, the economy and stock markets are holding up very well, and may even enter a period of “hot,” or sharply rising prices related to President Trump’s stimulative economic policies being planned. But the White House is walking a tightrope, trying to balance economic stimulus with disruptive trade and radical/unilateral geopolitical measures that can lead to unintended consequences. And now starts the battle for control of the nation’s money between the president and the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank. The power of the White House (government) is one thing. Control of the nation’s banking system is ultimate power (Pluto). And this summer, Jupiter (expansive) will be in opposition to Pluto (reform, coercion, power play).

This is a very risky period when the bubbles of Neptune can burst, and a massive transfer of wealth disrupts the whole game. It has an orb of four months, but the tensions are mounting now between the President and the Federal Reserve Board. These conflicts have been covered at length, described as due for this period of time in the Forecast Books of 2024, 2025, and 2026 (Pages 76-78 and 83-86 in this year’s 50th edition).

Basically, the broader geocosmic correlation has to do with the 36-year Saturn/Neptune conjunction. Its central time band is in effect mid-2025 through February 2026 at 0° Aries, the “World Point.” This just happens to also be the MC (Midheaven) of the Federal Reserve Board chart (founded December 23, 1913, at 6:02 PM, Washington, D.C.). And if that is not enough, the Saturn/Neptune conjunction at 0° Aries also forms a potent cardinal T-square to the Sun/Pluto opposition of the Fed’s chart at 0-1° of Capricorn/Cancer. This is why it is developing into an “epic battle.”

The last time a U.S. president entered such a battle with its central bank was 1832-1836, when Andrew Jackson actively worked to destroy the Second National Bank. He let its charter expire in 1836, leading to the Panic of 1837 and one of the worst economic and stock market debacles in U.S. history. By 1842, the U.S. stock market had lost 80% of its value from its then ATH.

Could it happen again? Anything is possible between the Aries Vortex of 2025-2026 and the Saturn/Uranus conjunction of 2032. That’s also when Jupiter (exaggeration) will form its next conjunction to Pluto (debt, threat, and more reform). They will be at the halfway “opposition” point in July 2026. In the meantime, the pendulum of discord and polarity is about to reach an extreme with Aries Vortex as the older generation and its global grip of power begins to wane over the next six years, and new leadership arises with a different set of values that incorporates “group thought” (Pluto in Aquarius, trine Uranus in Gemini). A key factor in this outlook is that the Saturn part of this vortex in Aries (the “bully”) will begin separating from its favorable double sextile (and midpoint) to Uranus and Pluto, slowly at first, following its conjunction of February 20, 2026. This will free up Neptune, which has also been at the same midpoint and double sextile, but “blocked” by Saturn appearing in front of it over the past year, like the Moon over the Sun during a solar eclipse. As Saturn starts its separation, Neptune will remain in this powerful double sextile aspect for the next two-three years, garnering the powers bestowed by the Uranus and Pluto sextile that Saturn has subsumed. Saturn’s power will then start to wane, as I see it, and Neptune’s will rise. This represents the difference between the forces of the collective marching towards war (Saturn in Aries) versus those demanding peace (Neptune in Aries). It’s happened before when Saturn and Neptune conjoined, or Neptune has been the midpoint of Uranus and Pluto. War has been followed by ten years or more of peace. Can it happen again?

Bring it on!