|

Weekly column: From bull run to flip flop?

Review

“Quiet.” “Stealthy.” “Surprising.” Gold prices are hitting record highs, and Wall Street analysts say they have been caught off guard. The precious metal is traditionally seen as a haven in times of volatility and geopolitical risk. This time, its ascent is coinciding with investor optimism about the U.S. economy, which has sent riskier assets like stocks to new highs. Even bitcoin has surged past its previous record.

—Bob Henderson, “Big Gold Rally Surprises Wall Street,” Wall Street Journal, March 11, 2024.

The overall spending numbers fly in the face of fiscal reality. Mr. Biden proposes spending of $7.3 trillion in 2025, which is an increase of $1.1 trillion in two years. For those scoring at home, that’s 18%. Mr. Biden’s deficits mean that debt as a share of the economy also keeps rising… Covid spending by Donald Trump and Mr. Biden caused the debt to explode to levels not seen since the end of World War II. But unlike after that war, Mr. Biden is making no attempt to control the debt. This is a budget for a world that doesn’t exist…”

—The Editorial Board, “Biden Offers a Budget Fantasy,” Wall Street Journal, March 12, 2024.

In the absence of any major planetary aspects last week, financial markets that had been making new all-time highs started to pull back modestly. That doesn’t mean the Jupiter/Uranus express headed to its major destination on April 20/21 has been derailed. It just means there is a pause as Venus will first conjoin Saturn on March 21, followed by a powerful solar eclipse, and Mars conjoining Saturn, April 8-10.

It may get a bit rocky short-term, but the magnetic pull of Jupiter and Uranus is still poised to outweigh other cosmic forces. After all, there is probably no greater cosmic symbolism of a breakout to new all-time or multi-year highs than Jupiter interacting with Uranus. Uranus doesn’t like restrictions such as support and resistance and is driven to break beyond them, whereas Jupiter likes to do things in a big, grandiose fashion. Those dynamics aren’t over yet. Furthermore, they may show up in other sectors of human activity besides financial markets, such as boasts (over-confidence) and over-estimation of perceived factors in decision-making by world leaders, which could lead to critical strategic errors.

The number of new highs by global stock indices was less than the previous week. The German DAX remained strong, posting yet another new all-time high on March 14 at 18,039. The Zurich SMI soared to its highest level since May 2022, while the London FTSE made a new 9-month high. The Netherlands AEX failed to take out its all-time made the prior week, for a case of regional intermarket bearish divergence.

In ASIA and the Pacific Rim, India’s NIFTY made a new all-time high, but it was early in the week, after which it faded. The China and Hong Kong markets were strong with each positing their highest marks since November. The Japanese Nikkei took a turn south, dropping 2200+ points from its all-time high of the previous week. Australia’s ASX failed to take out its high of the prior week (though it tried) and then sold off into Friday, March 15.

No U.S. index made a new all-time high last week. The highs of March 8 in both the NASDAQ and S&P remained intact. Each index, including the DJIA, made a secondary high mid-week, but closed down by Friday, suggesting weakness heading into next week.

Silver was a star last week, continuing its surge to $25.42 on Friday, its highest price since its last primary cycle crest of December 4 (at 26.34) and in line with our call made in last week’s monthly MMA Cycles Report. Gold, however, did not exceed its all-time high of 2202 made the prior week on March 8.

Bitcoin made another new all-time high on Thursday, March 14, at 73,803. However, by Friday, one day later, it had dropped over 8000 to 65,564. Crude Oil had a good week, rallying to a high of 81.62 on Thursday, its highest price in four months.

Short-term geocosmics

 Vladimir Putin warned publicly for the second time in less than two weeks of the possibility of nuclear confrontation with the West, a saber the Russian president is rattling with increasing frequency ahead of presidential elections this weekend.

—Ann M. Simmons, “Putin Rattles Nuclear Saber Ahead of Presidential Elections,” Wall Street Journal, March 14, 2024.

…Don’t go around tonight
Well it’s bound to take your life
There’s a bad moon on the rise.

—John Fogerty & Creedence Clearwater Revival, Bad Moon Rising, Concord Music Publishing LLC, 1969.

“Only by living at the edge of death can you understand the indescribable joy of life.”

—James Clavel, Shōgun, 1975.

We are on the edge of a very passive-aggressive collective mood for the next three weeks. The passivity is shown by the Sun conjunct Neptune of March 17 in Pisces. It is supported by the frozen Venus/Saturn conjunction, also in Pisces, on March 21. In market-speak, that means traders may want to believe the raging bull markets will continue, but now there is some doubt and confusion. They may choose to “wait and see” if voices such as the Fed will come out and reaffirm that short-term interest rates will be reduced, as they suggested a few days ago. This is in light of the fact that last week’s inflation numbers showed a slight rise—and hence the pause in market rallies (i.e., stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin). Our rule remains the same as given before: any market declining into a hard Venus aspect (like we see on March 21) is a candidate to buy.

And once we pass through this fog of uncertainty, confusion, and passivity (or paralysis to act), we head into the eclipse season, with the Sun, Lunar North Node, and Chiron all in the potentially combative and aggressive sign of Aries. It’s another “Flip the Script” sequence. On top of that, Mercury will turn retrograde on April 1, which means instead of “flipping the script,” the script may “flip flop” (not much difference, except the flip flop means more confusion again). Financial markets could get rather rowdy and disorderly as we creep closer and closer to Jupiter conjoining Uranus on April 20.

It goes like this: first, there is a lunar eclipse on Monday, March 25. Lunar eclipses are Full Moons that find the Lunar Nodes nearby to both the Sun and Moon. Their “influence” prevails about three weeks before the eclipse and can continue approximately three months later in time. In Aries and Libra, this portends conflict between acts of aggression and strategies of diplomacy. Negotiations have a chance, at first. However, things could unravel quickly once Venus ends its conjunction with Neptune in Pisces (April 3) and enters Aries (April 4).

By April 8, one of the most powerful solar eclipses to darken a path across the United States will command awe and attention. Everyone will be asking: what does this event—these few minutes of total darkness—mean? In Aries, the Nodes and Chiron are also nearby, which means there is danger of harm. With Mars conjoining Saturn two days later, it can signify war threats or threats from nature (hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, extreme heat or cold). With Pluto in Aquarius, it can be a threat of nuclear actions.

Putin just rattled the saber—again, just as we pointed out, nuclear tensions could escalate when Pluto (threat to human lives), god of the underworld, went into Aquarius. He confirmed his threat again last week, which should not be taken lightly. It doesn’t mean he will definitely act on this threat or that if he does, it will happen in April. A solar eclipse can continue its promise or threat for approximately 18 months afterwards, and it can start up to three months before (different astrologers will have different opinions on this, but this is my observation). Thus, it would be unwise to assume Putin will not act on this threat if he personally feels threatened. And with his natal Sun-Saturn-Neptune conjunction in Libra opposite the eclipse, he may be paranoiac to the extent of having delusions of persecution. This may heighten his fear of threats—and acting upon them. We should be cognizant of this.

The path of the April 8 eclipse will follow a trajectory from Mexico, up through Texas, into the Midwest Corn belt, and along the U.S. Canadian border from Lake Erie up through Maine. Any country under the path of an eclipse is vulnerable to major changes in its leadership. It is vulnerable to a major reversal of its current policy initiatives.

What should we do? How should we approach this as individuals in our own life? Understand that the symbolism is that of the Moon (emotions, the past) blocking the path of the Sun (the future). A new path is being birthed, which means any path tied to emotions of attachment has to be transcended. If things are not working out well in relationships, work, or health, it is time to visualize and then initiate actions to forge a new path. Allowing matters and thoughts that are unhealthy to persist will raise the possibility that changes will be forced upon one. Detachment from that which is familiar may not be simple if one does not accept or make changes voluntarily.

Eclipses can be very Plutonian (in the language of astrology). It may seem like a ”bad moon is rising,” but it need not be, especially as this Eclipse is conjunct with the North Node of the Moon (as opposed to the Moon’s South Node). The important lesson to apply is the choice to detach oneself from habits, activities, and emotions that are blocking one’s future. If it isn’t working, fix it or change it. If it is working, don’t break it. Just be patient if you believe in yourself and your plans. And most of all, cause no harm to others, for with an eclipse like this, efforts to harm others could backfire in ways that are unexpected. Think of helping others and allowing them to help you (Mars/Saturn in Pisces), as opposed to a paranoid feeling of a need to punish others based on an assumption that they are trying to harm you.

Author

Raymond Merriman, CTA

Raymond Merriman, CTA

The Merriman Market Analyst

Raymond A. Merriman is the President of the Merriman Market Analyst, Inc and founder of the Merriman Market Timing Academy.

More from Raymond Merriman, CTA
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD trims gains, back below 1.1700 post-US ISM

EUR/USD is still struggling to find its balance on Wednesday, lingering below the 1.1700 milestone as neither side of the equation offers much conviction. Weaker Eurozone inflation is weighing on the Euro, while the US Dollar isn’t giving traders much to work despite the unexpected uptick in the US ISM Services PMI in December.

GBP/USD keeps the bearish stance below 1.3500

GBP/USD extends its pullback on Wednesday, slipping back below the 1.3500 mark and building on Tuesday’s retreat. The pair remains on the back foot, with the US Dollar also struggling to find clear direction as investors continue to assess the release of key US data.

Gold bounces off lows, still below $4,500

Gold stays on the defensive on Wednesday, trading around $4,440 per troy ounce after snapping a three-day winning streak. The rally appears to have stalled near the $4,500 area, as a modest uptick in the US Dollar following key results from the domestic docket weighs on the precious metal. The move lower in bullion, however, appears somewhat contained by falling US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP pause uptrend amid mixed ETF flows, weak sentiment

Bitcoin extends correction below the $93,000 mark at the time of writing on Wednesday, signaling a cooldown from the early-year rally that touched $94,789 on Monday. Altcoins, including Ethereum and Ripple, are also facing headwinds amid uncertainty in market sentiment.

2026 economic outlook: Clear skies but don’t unfasten your seatbelts yet

Most years fade into the background as soon as a new one starts. Not 2025: a year of epochal shifts, in which the macroeconomy was the dog that did not bark. What to expect in 2026? The shocks of 2025 will not be undone, but neither will they be repeated.

XRP battles selling pressure as profit-taking, ETF inflows shape outlook

Ripple (XRP) is trading downward but holding support at $2.22 at the time of writing on Wednesday, as fear spreads across the cryptocurrency market, reversing gains made from the start of the year.