Weekly Column

Review and Preview

The government reported Thursday that U.S. economy shrank at a dizzying 32.9% annual rate in the April-June quarter, by far the worst quarterly plunge ever, as the coronavirus outbreak shut down businesses, threw tens of millions out of work and sent unemployment surging to 14.7%. – The Associated Press, “Trump Floats Election ‘Delay’ Amid Claims of Voting Fraud,” www.foxbusiness.com, July 30,
2020.

Yes, some pollsters were off four years ago, but that merely confirms that polls (and pundits) are fallible, not that they are always wrong and should be ignored. Jason L. Riley, “It’s Getting Late Early for the Trump Re-Election Effort,” Wall Street Journal, July 30, 2020.

Every dog of a bad policy idea has its day, but bad monetary policy seems to get more than one… By explicitly politicizing interest rates, the FED also opened itself to political pressure from Treasury to maintain the policy after (World War II) despite rising inflation…These concepts pale against the greatest risk: The world needs a market price for the 10-year Treasury yield, and Mr. Powell is threatening to take that away. We don’t know what price the global economy would pay for such a policy in economic distortions or financial instability. The Fed doesn’t know either. No one should be eager to find out. – “Jerome Powell’s Price-Fix Is In,” Wall Street Journal, Opinion page, July 28, 2020.

It was an incredible, almost surreal week. The President of the United States compares himself with Dr. Fauci’s popularity and in a moment of bizarre self-reflection, publicly laments “…nobody like me. It can only be my personality.” And in the same week, he tweets, “Delay the Election until people can properly, securely, and safely vote???” What? Delay the election? Nobody likes me?

The stock markets of the world certainly didn’t like this dark turn into self-pity, uncertainty, and gloom as several indices promptly sold off to new multi-week lows. Maybe it has to do with polling numbers showing Joe Biden rising in popularity (markets don’t like the idea of change of leadership, and probably for good reason in this case). Maybe it has to do with the riveting book written by his niece, Mary Trump, titled, “Too Much and Never Enough.” I read it and recommend everyone read it, whether you are ProTrump or Never Trump. It is the most in-depth analysis of the President’s personality I have ever read, and now (given my own formal education in Psychology) I think I have a clearer understanding of who he is and what drives him. I feel better about that on the one hand, and troubled about what it implies for the future on the other hand. I have a similar concern about the Democratic nominee’s potential effect on the future of the U.S. Maybe that’s why the equity markets are starting to struggle and show signs of weakness again. Everyone is concerned about the future of this country, the world, its leadership, the economy, and the re-emergence of the growing threat of the hidden enemy known as COVID-19. Fewer and fewer people believe we are going in the “right direction.” It is all a reflection of the “Capricorn Stellium,” which is returning now that Saturn has retrograded back into Capricorn (July 1-December 19).

Capricorn has a knack for too much reality, self-absorption, fear, and lack of vision about positive possible outcomes – unless it has a well-thought out plan it confidently follows. Once it has that in place, then it can climb the mountain and experience the exhilaration that comes with effort and accomplishment.

But let’s return to the market before I get too caught up in my own Capricorn self-absorption. The U.S. Dollar didn’t like what happened last week either, as it fell to the 92.50 area, its lowest mark since May 2018. Four months ago, it was around 103, testing its highest level since hitting 103.82 in January 2017, and that was its highest level since December 2002. The Dollar does not like the idea of the Fed and the government printing and spending so much money. It doesn’t like the idea of the Fed continuing to intervene and engineering in financial markets and destroying the “Efficient Market Theory” of free trade. But you know who does like it? Gold and Silver and every other currency measured against the U.S. Dollar.

If you think the political and economic environment was surreal last week, take a close look at Gold, which topped $2000/ounce for the first time ever. Gold is also a reflection of the collective psychology, which is mired deeper and deeper into the final throes of the Capricorn Stellium.

Just think: After the winter solstice on December 2020, it may all begin to change as both Jupiter and Saturn leave Capricorn (sign of tradition, the past, the old era) for Aquarius, the sign of the future and outer space (a new era). It hasn’t started that series of conjunctions in air signs for nearly 800 years. It will be around for the next 140 years. We just have to be patient (Capricorn does best when patient) and get through this. It is what it is, until it’s not that anymore. The end of a cycle is always the most challenging time. The beginning of a new cycle is usually awesome and inspirational, filled with new ideas and new leaders.

Short-term geocosmics

There must be some kind of way outta here Said the joker to the thief There's too much confusion I can't get no relief - Bob Dylan, “All Along the Watchtower,” also sung by Jimi Hendrix, Columbia studios,
Nashville, TN, 1967

Family isn’t who you are born with… it’s who you die for. Lincoln Clay, Mafia 3, 2016. I’ve got a mood going on today. Maybe it is related to the Moon in Capricorn. I feel like writing more from the subjective point of view (a dangerous temptation) rather than that of a columnist trying to be objective and detached. I feel like sharing my concerns about the rest of the year, and my hopes about the rest of this life. As part of this introspection, I find myself reviewing where I came from, how today is a lot like living in the 1960’s, like the only way you could make it out of that time alive and in one piece was to be bold, brave, find your tribe (family) in your expanded generational discovery of one another and hold onto a sense that a new age was unfolding, and you and your circle of adventurists were cocreating this brave new world. Current events were dark, just as today, but our visions for a brighter future and a world of peace and beauty were strong, which is something we need today, but are presently missing.

I look at the arrangement of the cosmos for the rest of this year, and in particular August 4-24, and I think: I’ve been here before. We’ve been through this before. We went through this in the mid 1960’s. And we went through this earlier this year (March-April 2020). The U.S. stock market made all-time highs in February 1966, as the DJIA touched 1000 for the first time in February of that year, as protesters fought police and government, and civil unrest escalated for the next 3-5 years. The all-time high in the DJIA lasted about 2 days and then stocks fell hard over the next eight months. It didn’t bottom until shortly after Richard Nixon decided he had enough and resigned on August 8, 1974.

The DJIA made another new all-time high in mid-February 2020 (it likes February for making highs), and then fell hard for the next five weeks. It has rallied again, with the NASDAQ making a new all-time high in mid-July and once again the President is probably wondering if this is all worth it. “No one likes me, it can only be my personality.” He might be thinking, as I am thinking, ”There must be some kind of way outta here,” but probably for different reasons. I am wondering how to get out of here because I want to be with my wife who lives in Germany. But I can’t get out of here because of the uneven, nonsensical travel ban restrictions between the U.S. and the Euro zone. Our country won’t allow Germans to travel here, so the Euro union won’t allow Americans to travel there, even with current COVID-19 test results.

I mean, we could meet in Serbia, which both countries allow citizens of the other to enter. Is Serbia, which I love, safer than Germany? Did I mention that these are very surreal times? I will be glad when Jupiter (travel) leaves Capricorn (restriction) around the same time that Jupiter separates from Saturn, ruler of Capricorn (restriction and bans) at the end of this year. Then, I think, there will be some way outta here. But back to the markets before I sign off for this week. Between August 4-24, Mars will transit in its first quarter cycle square to the Capricorn Stellium planets (Jupiter, Pluto, and Saturn). This cycle started when all four planets conjoined March 20-31, 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 hysteria and market crash.

So the first quarter phase of that planetary combo is up now, August 4-24, which means we could have a repeat (at least thematically-speaking), which in turn serves a warning sign to investors. Markets could easily get riled; this could become dangerous if you are complacent, perhaps because politicians and central bankers are getting riled and thus prone to impulsive, confrontational, decisions and acts.

This is what you need to know as a trader or investor: August is a red flag – danger –period. It might get hot (weather-wise too, for traders of grains). This might continue to be favorable for precious metals and currencies, because they get excited under cosmic storms like these. So do I because I like to trade precious metals and currencies. The only problem is that due to Mars turning retrograde on September 8, this waxing square involving Mars to the Capricorn Stellium will happen two more times before the year is out. And as a Capricorn, I don’t know how much more excitement I can tolerate. As a Capricorn, I like to manage my emotions - and maybe those of others too. Actually, I wish others wouldn’t get too emotional around me… just be happy, playful, and keep stress to yourself, please. Or talk it over with my new favorite psychologist, Mary Trump.

Nevertheless, the message I hope you, dear reader, get from this week’s column is this: be aware that the next three weeks may be extremely volatile, and it may repeat again in the first three weeks of October.

Also be vigilant around the time that Mars turns retrograde September 9-10. Yet there is also cause for hope. Further out, this cosmic volcanic eruption will end with the beginning of winter when Jupiter and Saturn conjoin, right after they depart from Capricorn. Short-term, there is also a path for enjoyment and hope, for the Sun and Mars are both in their ruling fire signs of Leo and Aries, respectively. For that matter, Neptune in Pisces and Saturn in Capricorn are also in their ruling signs.

That’s four planets in their ruling sign through August 22. When planets are “home,” positive things can happen too. Maybe the stock market will find something to be happy about (even with Mars square to the stellium in Capricorn, which can be climbing a “wall of worry”). Maybe the president will too, as the Sun in Leo will cross his Leo ascendant. Don’t be surprised if he gets off the ground and finds his sword by the middle of August and starts wielding it again. As Yogi Berra, says, “It’s not over until it’s over.”